Argentina’s official USD/ARS rate hovers near 1,490 in mid-August 2026 under the January-introduced crawling band, which widens monthly at lagged inflation rates of roughly 2–3 percent and permits gradual peso depreciation while the central bank buys dollars to rebuild reserves. Persistent inflation—IMF baseline end-2026 projection around 22.5 percent—combined with heavy 2026 debt maturities and thin usable reserves continues to pressure the currency, supporting trader consensus for levels above 1,600 by year-end. Recent reserve purchases exceeding $5.5 billion and an IMF staff agreement unlocking further disbursements have stabilized sentiment but have not altered the managed-depreciation path, keeping implied probabilities concentrated on the highest bucket.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated1600.00+ 59%
1500.00–1549.99 12.5%
1550.00–1599.99 10.0%
1450.00–1499.99 6.7%
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
<1250.00
4%
1250.00–1299.99
<1%
1300.00–1349.99
<1%
1350.00–1399.99
<1%
1400.00–1449.99
4%
1450.00–1499.99
19%
1500.00–1549.99
13%
1550.00–1599.99
10%
1600.00+
65%
1600.00+ 59%
1500.00–1549.99 12.5%
1550.00–1599.99 10.0%
1450.00–1499.99 6.7%
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
<1250.00
$536 Vol.
4%
1250.00–1299.99
$790 Vol.
<1%
1300.00–1349.99
$677 Vol.
<1%
1350.00–1399.99
$730 Vol.
<1%
1400.00–1449.99
$1,239 Vol.
4%
1450.00–1499.99
$1,264 Vol.
19%
1500.00–1549.99
$1,171 Vol.
13%
1550.00–1599.99
$688 Vol.
10%
1600.00+
$1,902 Vol.
65%
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Argentina’s official USD/ARS rate hovers near 1,490 in mid-August 2026 under the January-introduced crawling band, which widens monthly at lagged inflation rates of roughly 2–3 percent and permits gradual peso depreciation while the central bank buys dollars to rebuild reserves. Persistent inflation—IMF baseline end-2026 projection around 22.5 percent—combined with heavy 2026 debt maturities and thin usable reserves continues to pressure the currency, supporting trader consensus for levels above 1,600 by year-end. Recent reserve purchases exceeding $5.5 billion and an IMF staff agreement unlocking further disbursements have stabilized sentiment but have not altered the managed-depreciation path, keeping implied probabilities concentrated on the highest bucket.
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Market Opened: Jan 21, 2026, 10:25 AM ET
Volume
$8,997End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 21, 2026, 10:25 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Argentina’s official USD/ARS rate hovers near 1,490 in mid-August 2026 under the January-introduced crawling band, which widens monthly at lagged inflation rates of roughly 2–3 percent and permits gradual peso depreciation while the central bank buys dollars to rebuild reserves. Persistent inflation—IMF baseline end-2026 projection around 22.5 percent—combined with heavy 2026 debt maturities and thin usable reserves continues to pressure the currency, supporting trader consensus for levels above 1,600 by year-end. Recent reserve purchases exceeding $5.5 billion and an IMF staff agreement unlocking further disbursements have stabilized sentiment but have not altered the managed-depreciation path, keeping implied probabilities concentrated on the highest bucket.
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$8,997End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 21, 2026, 10:25 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Argentina’s official USD/ARS rate hovers near 1,490 in mid-August 2026 under the January-introduced crawling band, which widens monthly at lagged inflation rates of roughly 2–3 percent and permits gradual peso depreciation while the central bank buys dollars to rebuild reserves. Persistent inflation—IMF baseline end-2026 projection around 22.5 percent—combined with heavy 2026 debt maturities and thin usable reserves continues to pressure the currency, supporting trader consensus for levels above 1,600 by year-end. Recent reserve purchases exceeding $5.5 billion and an IMF staff agreement unlocking further disbursements have stabilized sentiment but have not altered the managed-depreciation path, keeping implied probabilities concentrated on the highest bucket.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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