AfD leads polls by double digits in Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern ahead of the September 6 and 20 contests, positioning the party to secure pluralities or outright majorities of seats in both eastern states through strong regional support and the 5 percent electoral threshold eliminating smaller competitors. In contrast, AfD has only recently topped surveys in Berlin but faces a more fragmented electorate that makes a seat plurality far less likely. These polling patterns, stable into mid-August 2026, underpin trader consensus around two September victories while assigning lower probability to a sweep of all three. No major late-breaking events have altered the eastern leads in recent weeks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated2 76%
3 16.6%
1 7.9%
0 <1%
$52,087 Vol.
$52,087 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
0
<1%
1
8%
2
76%
3
17%
2 76%
3 16.6%
1 7.9%
0 <1%
$52,087 Vol.
$52,087 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
0
$5,012 Vol.
<1%
1
$12,588 Vol.
8%
2
$20,488 Vol.
76%
3
$13,999 Vol.
17%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (also known as Saxony-Anhalt), the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in September of 2026.
This market will resolve to the number of elections, among those three listed, in which Alternative für Deutschland, also referred to as AfD or Alternative for Germany, wins or ties for the greatest number of seats in these elections.
No other election in a German state parliamentary body will be considered, even if it is held in September of 2026.
A delayed election to any of the three referenced bodies will be considered so long as voting is completed by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official websites of the listed parliamentary bodies. No potential challenge or invalidation of an election that occurs after the publication of the official results will be relevant to this market. AfD leads polls by double digits in Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern ahead of the September 6 and 20 contests, positioning the party to secure pluralities or outright majorities of seats in both eastern states through strong regional support and the 5 percent electoral threshold eliminating smaller competitors. In contrast, AfD has only recently topped surveys in Berlin but faces a more fragmented electorate that makes a seat plurality far less likely. These polling patterns, stable into mid-August 2026, underpin trader consensus around two September victories while assigning lower probability to a sweep of all three. No major late-breaking events have altered the eastern leads in recent weeks.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (also known as Saxony-Anhalt), the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in September of 2026.
This market will resolve to the number of elections, among those three listed, in which Alternative für Deutschland, also referred to as AfD or Alternative for Germany, wins or ties for the greatest number of seats in these elections.
No other election in a German state parliamentary body will be considered, even if it is held in September of 2026.
A delayed election to any of the three referenced bodies will be considered so long as voting is completed by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official websites of the listed parliamentary bodies. No potential challenge or invalidation of an election that occurs after the publication of the official results will be relevant to this market.
This market will resolve to the number of elections, among those three listed, in which Alternative für Deutschland, also referred to as AfD or Alternative for Germany, wins or ties for the greatest number of seats in these elections.
No other election in a German state parliamentary body will be considered, even if it is held in September of 2026.
A delayed election to any of the three referenced bodies will be considered so long as voting is completed by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official websites of the listed parliamentary bodies. No potential challenge or invalidation of an election that occurs after the publication of the official results will be relevant to this market.
Market Opened: Jul 6, 2026, 6:04 PM ET
Volume
$52,087End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 6, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (also known as Saxony-Anhalt), the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in September of 2026.
This market will resolve to the number of elections, among those three listed, in which Alternative für Deutschland, also referred to as AfD or Alternative for Germany, wins or ties for the greatest number of seats in these elections.
No other election in a German state parliamentary body will be considered, even if it is held in September of 2026.
A delayed election to any of the three referenced bodies will be considered so long as voting is completed by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official websites of the listed parliamentary bodies. No potential challenge or invalidation of an election that occurs after the publication of the official results will be relevant to this market. AfD leads polls by double digits in Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern ahead of the September 6 and 20 contests, positioning the party to secure pluralities or outright majorities of seats in both eastern states through strong regional support and the 5 percent electoral threshold eliminating smaller competitors. In contrast, AfD has only recently topped surveys in Berlin but faces a more fragmented electorate that makes a seat plurality far less likely. These polling patterns, stable into mid-August 2026, underpin trader consensus around two September victories while assigning lower probability to a sweep of all three. No major late-breaking events have altered the eastern leads in recent weeks.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (also known as Saxony-Anhalt), the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in September of 2026.
This market will resolve to the number of elections, among those three listed, in which Alternative für Deutschland, also referred to as AfD or Alternative for Germany, wins or ties for the greatest number of seats in these elections.
No other election in a German state parliamentary body will be considered, even if it is held in September of 2026.
A delayed election to any of the three referenced bodies will be considered so long as voting is completed by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official websites of the listed parliamentary bodies. No potential challenge or invalidation of an election that occurs after the publication of the official results will be relevant to this market.
This market will resolve to the number of elections, among those three listed, in which Alternative für Deutschland, also referred to as AfD or Alternative for Germany, wins or ties for the greatest number of seats in these elections.
No other election in a German state parliamentary body will be considered, even if it is held in September of 2026.
A delayed election to any of the three referenced bodies will be considered so long as voting is completed by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official websites of the listed parliamentary bodies. No potential challenge or invalidation of an election that occurs after the publication of the official results will be relevant to this market.
Volume
$52,087End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 6, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...AfD leads polls by double digits in Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern ahead of the September 6 and 20 contests, positioning the party to secure pluralities or outright majorities of seats in both eastern states through strong regional support and the 5 percent electoral threshold eliminating smaller competitors. In contrast, AfD has only recently topped surveys in Berlin but faces a more fragmented electorate that makes a seat plurality far less likely. These polling patterns, stable into mid-August 2026, underpin trader consensus around two September victories while assigning lower probability to a sweep of all three. No major late-breaking events have altered the eastern leads in recent weeks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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