Venezuelan crude oil output has stabilized near 1.1–1.2 million barrels per day through mid-2026 following years of decline, supported by Chevron’s joint ventures and gradual sanctions adjustments. The January 2026 political transition after Nicolás Maduro’s arrest has shifted market focus toward potential easing of U.S. restrictions, new hydrocarbon reforms, and roughly $1.4 billion in expected 2026 investment, though analysts highlight persistent infrastructure bottlenecks and the need for sustained foreign capital to achieve meaningful gains. Projections from firms such as JPMorgan and Rystad Energy point to possible increases of several hundred thousand barrels per day over the next two years, contingent on regulatory clarity and service-sector capacity, while Goldman Sachs forecasts remain flat near 900,000 barrels per day for 2026 absent faster progress.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$182,369 Vol.
Feb 28, 2027
1.2m
55%
1.3m
22%
1.4m
8%
1.5m
6%
1.7m
3%
2m
3%
$182,369 Vol.
1.2m
$10,443 Vol.
55%
1.3m
$7,702 Vol.
22%
1.4m
$19,769 Vol.
8%
1.5m
$9,719 Vol.
6%
1.7m
$58,787 Vol.
3%
2m
$16,311 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to “Yes”, if Venezuelan crude oil production is greater than or equal to the listed number of barrels per day for any month in 2026, according to the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report published for each month.
The resolution source for this market will be the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, published each month in reference to the previous month at https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 5-7 DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d” under the column for the relevant month and the “Venezuela” row.
This market will resolve as soon as Venezuelan crude oil production is reported to be greater than or equal to the listed number. If the listed number has not been reached for any month by the release of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 (expected to be released in January 2027), this market will resolve to “No”. If no Opec Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 has been published by February 28, 2027, ET and the listed number has not been reached for any prior month, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market reports crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.Venezuelan crude oil output has stabilized near 1.1–1.2 million barrels per day through mid-2026 following years of decline, supported by Chevron’s joint ventures and gradual sanctions adjustments. The January 2026 political transition after Nicolás Maduro’s arrest has shifted market focus toward potential easing of U.S. restrictions, new hydrocarbon reforms, and roughly $1.4 billion in expected 2026 investment, though analysts highlight persistent infrastructure bottlenecks and the need for sustained foreign capital to achieve meaningful gains. Projections from firms such as JPMorgan and Rystad Energy point to possible increases of several hundred thousand barrels per day over the next two years, contingent on regulatory clarity and service-sector capacity, while Goldman Sachs forecasts remain flat near 900,000 barrels per day for 2026 absent faster progress.
This market will resolve to “Yes”, if Venezuelan crude oil production is greater than or equal to the listed number of barrels per day for any month in 2026, according to the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report published for each month.
The resolution source for this market will be the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, published each month in reference to the previous month at https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 5-7 DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d” under the column for the relevant month and the “Venezuela” row.
This market will resolve as soon as Venezuelan crude oil production is reported to be greater than or equal to the listed number. If the listed number has not been reached for any month by the release of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 (expected to be released in January 2027), this market will resolve to “No”. If no Opec Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 has been published by February 28, 2027, ET and the listed number has not been reached for any prior month, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market reports crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, published each month in reference to the previous month at https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 5-7 DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d” under the column for the relevant month and the “Venezuela” row.
This market will resolve as soon as Venezuelan crude oil production is reported to be greater than or equal to the listed number. If the listed number has not been reached for any month by the release of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 (expected to be released in January 2027), this market will resolve to “No”. If no Opec Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 has been published by February 28, 2027, ET and the listed number has not been reached for any prior month, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market reports crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
Market Opened: Jan 6, 2026, 11:09 PM ET
Volume
$182,369End Date
Feb 28, 2027Market Opened
Jan 6, 2026, 11:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes”, if Venezuelan crude oil production is greater than or equal to the listed number of barrels per day for any month in 2026, according to the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report published for each month.
The resolution source for this market will be the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, published each month in reference to the previous month at https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 5-7 DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d” under the column for the relevant month and the “Venezuela” row.
This market will resolve as soon as Venezuelan crude oil production is reported to be greater than or equal to the listed number. If the listed number has not been reached for any month by the release of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 (expected to be released in January 2027), this market will resolve to “No”. If no Opec Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 has been published by February 28, 2027, ET and the listed number has not been reached for any prior month, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market reports crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.Venezuelan crude oil output has stabilized near 1.1–1.2 million barrels per day through mid-2026 following years of decline, supported by Chevron’s joint ventures and gradual sanctions adjustments. The January 2026 political transition after Nicolás Maduro’s arrest has shifted market focus toward potential easing of U.S. restrictions, new hydrocarbon reforms, and roughly $1.4 billion in expected 2026 investment, though analysts highlight persistent infrastructure bottlenecks and the need for sustained foreign capital to achieve meaningful gains. Projections from firms such as JPMorgan and Rystad Energy point to possible increases of several hundred thousand barrels per day over the next two years, contingent on regulatory clarity and service-sector capacity, while Goldman Sachs forecasts remain flat near 900,000 barrels per day for 2026 absent faster progress.
This market will resolve to “Yes”, if Venezuelan crude oil production is greater than or equal to the listed number of barrels per day for any month in 2026, according to the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report published for each month.
The resolution source for this market will be the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, published each month in reference to the previous month at https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 5-7 DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d” under the column for the relevant month and the “Venezuela” row.
This market will resolve as soon as Venezuelan crude oil production is reported to be greater than or equal to the listed number. If the listed number has not been reached for any month by the release of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 (expected to be released in January 2027), this market will resolve to “No”. If no Opec Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 has been published by February 28, 2027, ET and the listed number has not been reached for any prior month, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market reports crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, published each month in reference to the previous month at https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 5-7 DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d” under the column for the relevant month and the “Venezuela” row.
This market will resolve as soon as Venezuelan crude oil production is reported to be greater than or equal to the listed number. If the listed number has not been reached for any month by the release of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 (expected to be released in January 2027), this market will resolve to “No”. If no Opec Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 has been published by February 28, 2027, ET and the listed number has not been reached for any prior month, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market reports crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
Volume
$182,369End Date
Feb 28, 2027Market Opened
Jan 6, 2026, 11:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Venezuelan crude oil output has stabilized near 1.1–1.2 million barrels per day through mid-2026 following years of decline, supported by Chevron’s joint ventures and gradual sanctions adjustments. The January 2026 political transition after Nicolás Maduro’s arrest has shifted market focus toward potential easing of U.S. restrictions, new hydrocarbon reforms, and roughly $1.4 billion in expected 2026 investment, though analysts highlight persistent infrastructure bottlenecks and the need for sustained foreign capital to achieve meaningful gains. Projections from firms such as JPMorgan and Rystad Energy point to possible increases of several hundred thousand barrels per day over the next two years, contingent on regulatory clarity and service-sector capacity, while Goldman Sachs forecasts remain flat near 900,000 barrels per day for 2026 absent faster progress.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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