Diplomatic resistance from Denmark and Greenland, combined with congressional inaction on early 2026 proposals targeting acquisition of the island, underpins trader consensus that the United States will not annex territory this year. International norms against territorial conquest, NATO alliance constraints, and the absence of viable bilateral agreements reinforce this positioning, consistent with the lack of successful U.S. annexations since the mid-20th century. Public opposition to military options and limited support for purchases further limit pathways. Remaining uncertainty centers on potential late-year negotiated transfers amid active conflicts or unexpected deals, though constitutional requirements, Senate approval thresholds, and alliance pressures render such outcomes improbable before December 31.