ByteDance’s private-market valuation currently stands near $550–600 billion following secondary transactions and proposed equity sales earlier in 2026, after climbing from a $330 billion employee buyback in August 2025 and a $480 billion November 2025 trade. The January 2026 U.S. approval of TikTok’s restructuring into a majority U.S.-owned entity removed a major regulatory overhang and supported the subsequent rise, alongside robust revenue growth exceeding 38% year-over-year to $155 billion in 2024 and continued expansion in TikTok Shop and advertising. With the founder signaling that an IPO is not under consideration and liquidity occurring primarily through share buybacks and secondaries rather than a public listing, the market-implied odds reflect limited near-term catalysts capable of driving a substantial further revaluation by year-end. Traders are monitoring any new funding activity or macroeconomic shifts in risk appetite that could influence private pricing benchmarks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCurrent Valuation:$574.32B
+77.50%Powered by
$68,102 Vol.
Jan 1, 2027
↑$1.5T
8%
↑$1.25T
5%
↑$1.0T
11%
↑$900B
16%
↑$800B
19%
↑$700B
27%
↑$650B
28%
↓$500B
28%
↓$400B
9%
↓$300B
9%
Current Valuation:$574.32B
+77.50%Powered by
$68,102 Vol.
↑$1.5T
$8,097 Vol.
8%
↑$1.25T
$12,683 Vol.
5%
↑$1.0T
$8,798 Vol.
11%
↑$900B
$2,868 Vol.
16%
↑$800B
$6,570 Vol.
19%
↑$700B
$6,779 Vol.
27%
↑$650B
$3,474 Vol.
28%
↓$500B
$2,759 Vol.
28%
↓$400B
$7,848 Vol.
9%
↓$300B
$6,941 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if ByteDance's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.
If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available.
If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.
If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company’s public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period.
Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company’s primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company’s total outstanding common shares at the relevant time.
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-f364d2ab-34b7-48c9-a2b7-af62da804953/data). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.ByteDance’s private-market valuation currently stands near $550–600 billion following secondary transactions and proposed equity sales earlier in 2026, after climbing from a $330 billion employee buyback in August 2025 and a $480 billion November 2025 trade. The January 2026 U.S. approval of TikTok’s restructuring into a majority U.S.-owned entity removed a major regulatory overhang and supported the subsequent rise, alongside robust revenue growth exceeding 38% year-over-year to $155 billion in 2024 and continued expansion in TikTok Shop and advertising. With the founder signaling that an IPO is not under consideration and liquidity occurring primarily through share buybacks and secondaries rather than a public listing, the market-implied odds reflect limited near-term catalysts capable of driving a substantial further revaluation by year-end. Traders are monitoring any new funding activity or macroeconomic shifts in risk appetite that could influence private pricing benchmarks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if ByteDance's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.
If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available.
If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.
If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company’s public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period.
Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company’s primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company’s total outstanding common shares at the relevant time.
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-f364d2ab-34b7-48c9-a2b7-af62da804953/data). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.
If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available.
If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.
If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company’s public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period.
Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company’s primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company’s total outstanding common shares at the relevant time.
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-f364d2ab-34b7-48c9-a2b7-af62da804953/data). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
Market Opened: Jul 1, 2026, 1:02 PM ET
Volume
$68,102End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 1, 2026, 1:02 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if ByteDance's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.
If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available.
If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.
If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company’s public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period.
Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company’s primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company’s total outstanding common shares at the relevant time.
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-f364d2ab-34b7-48c9-a2b7-af62da804953/data). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.ByteDance’s private-market valuation currently stands near $550–600 billion following secondary transactions and proposed equity sales earlier in 2026, after climbing from a $330 billion employee buyback in August 2025 and a $480 billion November 2025 trade. The January 2026 U.S. approval of TikTok’s restructuring into a majority U.S.-owned entity removed a major regulatory overhang and supported the subsequent rise, alongside robust revenue growth exceeding 38% year-over-year to $155 billion in 2024 and continued expansion in TikTok Shop and advertising. With the founder signaling that an IPO is not under consideration and liquidity occurring primarily through share buybacks and secondaries rather than a public listing, the market-implied odds reflect limited near-term catalysts capable of driving a substantial further revaluation by year-end. Traders are monitoring any new funding activity or macroeconomic shifts in risk appetite that could influence private pricing benchmarks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if ByteDance's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.
If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available.
If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.
If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company’s public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period.
Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company’s primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company’s total outstanding common shares at the relevant time.
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-f364d2ab-34b7-48c9-a2b7-af62da804953/data). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.
If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available.
If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.
If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company’s public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period.
Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company’s primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company’s total outstanding common shares at the relevant time.
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-f364d2ab-34b7-48c9-a2b7-af62da804953/data). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
Volume
$68,102End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 1, 2026, 1:02 PM ETByteDance’s private-market valuation currently stands near $550–600 billion following secondary transactions and proposed equity sales earlier in 2026, after climbing from a $330 billion employee buyback in August 2025 and a $480 billion November 2025 trade. The January 2026 U.S. approval of TikTok’s restructuring into a majority U.S.-owned entity removed a major regulatory overhang and supported the subsequent rise, alongside robust revenue growth exceeding 38% year-over-year to $155 billion in 2024 and continued expansion in TikTok Shop and advertising. With the founder signaling that an IPO is not under consideration and liquidity occurring primarily through share buybacks and secondaries rather than a public listing, the market-implied odds reflect limited near-term catalysts capable of driving a substantial further revaluation by year-end. Traders are monitoring any new funding activity or macroeconomic shifts in risk appetite that could influence private pricing benchmarks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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