SpaceX's aggressive flight test cadence and demonstrated Super Heavy booster tower catches have anchored trader confidence in full Starship reusability before 2028, with Version 3 hardware now targeting both booster and ship recovery plus orbital propellant transfer demonstrations as early as 2026. Recent Block 2 and Block 3 flights through mid-2026, including controlled ship landings and preparations for Flight 14 ship catch attempts, show steady progress on heat shield durability, Raptor engine reliability, and avionics for rapid turnaround despite prior setbacks. Key catalysts ahead include the first integrated ship catch, in-space refueling tests, and regulatory approvals for higher launch rates, all of which could accelerate operational reuse timelines while technical hurdles like heat shield longevity and high-cadence operations introduce realistic downside risks to the 73% implied probability.