Moonshot AI's July release of the Kimi K3, a 2.8-trillion-parameter open-weight large language model, has driven its 70.5% implied probability as the second-best Chinese AI company by end of August. Independent benchmarks from Arena.AI and Artificial Analysis place Kimi K3 at or near the top of Chinese models and competitive with leading U.S. systems like Anthropic's Fable 5, outperforming rivals from DeepSeek, Alibaba's Qwen series, Zhipu AI (Z.ai), and others on reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks. This surge follows earlier 2025 gains by DeepSeek and positions Moonshot ahead of big-tech players like Alibaba, Baidu, and ByteDance, whose lower odds reflect slower recent progress relative to specialized labs. Traders are weighing potential follow-on updates or benchmark shifts before the August close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMoonshot 71%
Z.ai 24.3%
Alibaba 4.0%
Baidu 1.5%
$59,742 Vol.
$59,742 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
Moonshot
71%
Z.ai
24%
Alibaba
4%
Baidu
2%
DeepSeek
1%
Xiaomi
1%
ByteDance
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Moonshot 71%
Z.ai 24.3%
Alibaba 4.0%
Baidu 1.5%
$59,742 Vol.
$59,742 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
Moonshot
$18,122 Vol.
71%
Z.ai
$10,532 Vol.
24%
Alibaba
$6,824 Vol.
4%
Baidu
$4,787 Vol.
2%
DeepSeek
$5,764 Vol.
1%
Xiaomi
$3,562 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$2,763 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$3,037 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$1,080 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$2,698 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$574 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked primarily Chinese company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Moonshot AI's July release of the Kimi K3, a 2.8-trillion-parameter open-weight large language model, has driven its 70.5% implied probability as the second-best Chinese AI company by end of August. Independent benchmarks from Arena.AI and Artificial Analysis place Kimi K3 at or near the top of Chinese models and competitive with leading U.S. systems like Anthropic's Fable 5, outperforming rivals from DeepSeek, Alibaba's Qwen series, Zhipu AI (Z.ai), and others on reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks. This surge follows earlier 2025 gains by DeepSeek and positions Moonshot ahead of big-tech players like Alibaba, Baidu, and ByteDance, whose lower odds reflect slower recent progress relative to specialized labs. Traders are weighing potential follow-on updates or benchmark shifts before the August close.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked primarily Chinese company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Jul 20, 2026, 8:38 PM ET
Volume
$59,742End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 8:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked primarily Chinese company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Moonshot AI's July release of the Kimi K3, a 2.8-trillion-parameter open-weight large language model, has driven its 70.5% implied probability as the second-best Chinese AI company by end of August. Independent benchmarks from Arena.AI and Artificial Analysis place Kimi K3 at or near the top of Chinese models and competitive with leading U.S. systems like Anthropic's Fable 5, outperforming rivals from DeepSeek, Alibaba's Qwen series, Zhipu AI (Z.ai), and others on reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks. This surge follows earlier 2025 gains by DeepSeek and positions Moonshot ahead of big-tech players like Alibaba, Baidu, and ByteDance, whose lower odds reflect slower recent progress relative to specialized labs. Traders are weighing potential follow-on updates or benchmark shifts before the August close.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked primarily Chinese company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$59,742End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 8:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Moonshot AI's July release of the Kimi K3, a 2.8-trillion-parameter open-weight large language model, has driven its 70.5% implied probability as the second-best Chinese AI company by end of August. Independent benchmarks from Arena.AI and Artificial Analysis place Kimi K3 at or near the top of Chinese models and competitive with leading U.S. systems like Anthropic's Fable 5, outperforming rivals from DeepSeek, Alibaba's Qwen series, Zhipu AI (Z.ai), and others on reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks. This surge follows earlier 2025 gains by DeepSeek and positions Moonshot ahead of big-tech players like Alibaba, Baidu, and ByteDance, whose lower odds reflect slower recent progress relative to specialized labs. Traders are weighing potential follow-on updates or benchmark shifts before the August close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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