Traders assign a 96.5% probability that Pete Hegseth remains Secretary of Defense through August 31 because no congressional actions, White House announcements, or institutional processes point to an imminent departure in the narrow remaining window. Hegseth continues active duties, including recent Senate budget testimony and policy reviews on military posture, reflecting sustained administration backing and the absence of confirmed scandals or confirmation-related challenges that could force a quick exit. The short timeline further limits realistic pathways, such as a sudden resignation, health-related step-down, or major legal development, none of which have materialized in verifiable reporting. While isolated partisan criticism persists, it has not translated into procedural momentum capable of altering the outcome before the deadline.