NY-15 encompasses parts of the Bronx with a longstanding Democratic tilt, reflected in incumbents routinely securing wide margins in general elections. Ritchie Torres, the sitting representative since 2021, secured the Democratic nomination in the June 2026 primary by a substantial margin over challengers including Michael Blake, underscoring party unity and organizational strength ahead of the November 3 general election. Limited Republican opposition, led by nominee Stylo Sapaskis, faces structural headwinds from voter registration patterns and turnout dynamics in the district. The 96% implied probability for a Democratic victory aligns with these baseline conditions. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include an unforeseen national political shift favoring Republicans or a significant late-cycle development involving the incumbent, though both remain low-probability events based on current indicators.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNY-15 House Election Winner
NY-15 House Election Winner
$46,119 Vol.
$46,119 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
96%
Republican Party
2%
$46,119 Vol.
$46,119 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$26,923 Vol.
96%
Republican Party
$19,196 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).NY-15 encompasses parts of the Bronx with a longstanding Democratic tilt, reflected in incumbents routinely securing wide margins in general elections. Ritchie Torres, the sitting representative since 2021, secured the Democratic nomination in the June 2026 primary by a substantial margin over challengers including Michael Blake, underscoring party unity and organizational strength ahead of the November 3 general election. Limited Republican opposition, led by nominee Stylo Sapaskis, faces structural headwinds from voter registration patterns and turnout dynamics in the district. The 96% implied probability for a Democratic victory aligns with these baseline conditions. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include an unforeseen national political shift favoring Republicans or a significant late-cycle development involving the incumbent, though both remain low-probability events based on current indicators.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$46,119End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).NY-15 encompasses parts of the Bronx with a longstanding Democratic tilt, reflected in incumbents routinely securing wide margins in general elections. Ritchie Torres, the sitting representative since 2021, secured the Democratic nomination in the June 2026 primary by a substantial margin over challengers including Michael Blake, underscoring party unity and organizational strength ahead of the November 3 general election. Limited Republican opposition, led by nominee Stylo Sapaskis, faces structural headwinds from voter registration patterns and turnout dynamics in the district. The 96% implied probability for a Democratic victory aligns with these baseline conditions. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include an unforeseen national political shift favoring Republicans or a significant late-cycle development involving the incumbent, though both remain low-probability events based on current indicators.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$46,119End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...NY-15 encompasses parts of the Bronx with a longstanding Democratic tilt, reflected in incumbents routinely securing wide margins in general elections. Ritchie Torres, the sitting representative since 2021, secured the Democratic nomination in the June 2026 primary by a substantial margin over challengers including Michael Blake, underscoring party unity and organizational strength ahead of the November 3 general election. Limited Republican opposition, led by nominee Stylo Sapaskis, faces structural headwinds from voter registration patterns and turnout dynamics in the district. The 96% implied probability for a Democratic victory aligns with these baseline conditions. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include an unforeseen national political shift favoring Republicans or a significant late-cycle development involving the incumbent, though both remain low-probability events based on current indicators.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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