Elon Musk’s September 2 statement that Grok 4.7 would launch in roughly ten days—pointing to September 12—remains the clearest near-term catalyst, yet traders assign it only modest implied probability because xAI has repeatedly adjusted similar windows. The 2.1-trillion-parameter model completed initial pre-training by mid-August and received supplemental SpaceX-specific data for engineering tasks, positioning it to surpass current leaders in real-world technical reasoning while trading minor inference speed for better token efficiency. This follows the August 12 release of the 1.5-trillion-parameter Grok 4.6 and fits xAI’s aggressive monthly cadence, though historical slippage and the absence of an official model card or API identifier keep probabilities spread across mid-to-late September dates. Competitive pressure from Anthropic and OpenAI adds further uncertainty around exact timing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSeptember 30 40%
September 23 39%
September 18 38%
September 25 38%
NEW
NEW
Sep 9, 2026
On or prior to September 9
31%
September 10
36%
September 11
18%
September 12
17%
September 13
28%
September 14
38%
September 15
20%
September 16
35%
September 17
35%
September 18
38%
September 19
31%
September 20
34%
September 21
35%
September 22
32%
September 23
39%
September 24
31%
September 25
38%
September 26
31%
September 27
31%
September 28
36%
September 29
31%
September 30
40%
No release by September 30
34%
September 30 40%
September 23 39%
September 18 38%
September 25 38%
NEW
NEW
Sep 9, 2026
On or prior to September 9
$33 Vol.
31%
September 10
$0 Vol.
36%
September 11
$0 Vol.
18%
September 12
$317 Vol.
17%
September 13
$55 Vol.
28%
September 14
$0 Vol.
38%
September 15
$21 Vol.
20%
September 16
$0 Vol.
35%
September 17
$0 Vol.
35%
September 18
$0 Vol.
38%
September 19
$0 Vol.
31%
September 20
$0 Vol.
34%
September 21
$0 Vol.
35%
September 22
$0 Vol.
32%
September 23
$0 Vol.
39%
September 24
$0 Vol.
31%
September 25
$0 Vol.
38%
September 26
$0 Vol.
31%
September 27
$0 Vol.
31%
September 28
$0 Vol.
36%
September 29
$0 Vol.
31%
September 30
$0 Vol.
40%
No release by September 30
$0 Vol.
34%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Elon Musk’s September 2 statement that Grok 4.7 would launch in roughly ten days—pointing to September 12—remains the clearest near-term catalyst, yet traders assign it only modest implied probability because xAI has repeatedly adjusted similar windows. The 2.1-trillion-parameter model completed initial pre-training by mid-August and received supplemental SpaceX-specific data for engineering tasks, positioning it to surpass current leaders in real-world technical reasoning while trading minor inference speed for better token efficiency. This follows the August 12 release of the 1.5-trillion-parameter Grok 4.6 and fits xAI’s aggressive monthly cadence, though historical slippage and the absence of an official model card or API identifier keep probabilities spread across mid-to-late September dates. Competitive pressure from Anthropic and OpenAI adds further uncertainty around exact timing.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Sep 3, 2026, 8:19 PM ET
Volume
$426End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 8:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Elon Musk’s September 2 statement that Grok 4.7 would launch in roughly ten days—pointing to September 12—remains the clearest near-term catalyst, yet traders assign it only modest implied probability because xAI has repeatedly adjusted similar windows. The 2.1-trillion-parameter model completed initial pre-training by mid-August and received supplemental SpaceX-specific data for engineering tasks, positioning it to surpass current leaders in real-world technical reasoning while trading minor inference speed for better token efficiency. This follows the August 12 release of the 1.5-trillion-parameter Grok 4.6 and fits xAI’s aggressive monthly cadence, though historical slippage and the absence of an official model card or API identifier keep probabilities spread across mid-to-late September dates. Competitive pressure from Anthropic and OpenAI adds further uncertainty around exact timing.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$426End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 8:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elon Musk’s September 2 statement that Grok 4.7 would launch in roughly ten days—pointing to September 12—remains the clearest near-term catalyst, yet traders assign it only modest implied probability because xAI has repeatedly adjusted similar windows. The 2.1-trillion-parameter model completed initial pre-training by mid-August and received supplemental SpaceX-specific data for engineering tasks, positioning it to surpass current leaders in real-world technical reasoning while trading minor inference speed for better token efficiency. This follows the August 12 release of the 1.5-trillion-parameter Grok 4.6 and fits xAI’s aggressive monthly cadence, though historical slippage and the absence of an official model card or API identifier keep probabilities spread across mid-to-late September dates. Competitive pressure from Anthropic and OpenAI adds further uncertainty around exact timing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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