Meta's internal "Watermelon" model, positioned as the successor to the April 2026 Muse Spark release, has drawn trader attention due to July 2026 statements from Superintelligence Labs chief Alexandr Wang claiming it matches OpenAI's GPT-5.5 on undisclosed benchmarks while still in training and consuming roughly 10 times the compute of its predecessor. This brute-force scaling approach reflects Meta's broader $125–145 billion infrastructure push amid competitive pressure from OpenAI and Anthropic. A September 2, 2026, Muse Spark 1.3 update included a public roadmap referencing larger models, though no official Watermelon launch timeline or public access details have been confirmed. Traders are monitoring for verifiable public release criteria, such as open beta availability, that would resolve the market, with any delays in training or verification likely to keep odds in flux.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
14%
October 31
59%
November 30
79%
$947 Vol.
September 30
$20 Vol.
14%
October 31
$726 Vol.
59%
November 30
$201 Vol.
79%
On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Meta's internal "Watermelon" model, positioned as the successor to the April 2026 Muse Spark release, has drawn trader attention due to July 2026 statements from Superintelligence Labs chief Alexandr Wang claiming it matches OpenAI's GPT-5.5 on undisclosed benchmarks while still in training and consuming roughly 10 times the compute of its predecessor. This brute-force scaling approach reflects Meta's broader $125–145 billion infrastructure push amid competitive pressure from OpenAI and Anthropic. A September 2, 2026, Muse Spark 1.3 update included a public roadmap referencing larger models, though no official Watermelon launch timeline or public access details have been confirmed. Traders are monitoring for verifiable public release criteria, such as open beta availability, that would resolve the market, with any delays in training or verification likely to keep odds in flux.
On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 10:35 AM ET
Volume
$947End Date
Nov 30, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Meta's internal "Watermelon" model, positioned as the successor to the April 2026 Muse Spark release, has drawn trader attention due to July 2026 statements from Superintelligence Labs chief Alexandr Wang claiming it matches OpenAI's GPT-5.5 on undisclosed benchmarks while still in training and consuming roughly 10 times the compute of its predecessor. This brute-force scaling approach reflects Meta's broader $125–145 billion infrastructure push amid competitive pressure from OpenAI and Anthropic. A September 2, 2026, Muse Spark 1.3 update included a public roadmap referencing larger models, though no official Watermelon launch timeline or public access details have been confirmed. Traders are monitoring for verifiable public release criteria, such as open beta availability, that would resolve the market, with any delays in training or verification likely to keep odds in flux.
On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$947End Date
Nov 30, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Meta's internal "Watermelon" model, positioned as the successor to the April 2026 Muse Spark release, has drawn trader attention due to July 2026 statements from Superintelligence Labs chief Alexandr Wang claiming it matches OpenAI's GPT-5.5 on undisclosed benchmarks while still in training and consuming roughly 10 times the compute of its predecessor. This brute-force scaling approach reflects Meta's broader $125–145 billion infrastructure push amid competitive pressure from OpenAI and Anthropic. A September 2, 2026, Muse Spark 1.3 update included a public roadmap referencing larger models, though no official Watermelon launch timeline or public access details have been confirmed. Traders are monitoring for verifiable public release criteria, such as open beta availability, that would resolve the market, with any delays in training or verification likely to keep odds in flux.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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