Missouri's 3rd congressional district maintains a solid Republican tilt, reflected in its partisan voting index and the incumbent's 2024 general election performance of 61.3 percent. Bob Onder secured the GOP nomination in the August 4 primary with roughly two-thirds of the vote, while Democrat Bethany Mann advanced as the challenger after prior unsuccessful bids in the district. These outcomes, combined with the area's consistent support for Republican candidates in recent cycles and limited polling shifts since the primary, underpin the market's assessment of a commanding Republican position ahead of the November general election. A late national Democratic wave, major scandal, or unforeseen turnout surge could narrow the margin, though structural factors limit the scope for such changes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMO-03 House Election Winner
MO-03 House Election Winner
$21,050 Vol.
$21,050 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
91%
Democratic Party
8%
$21,050 Vol.
$21,050 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$6,172 Vol.
91%
Democratic Party
$14,878 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Missouri's 3rd congressional district maintains a solid Republican tilt, reflected in its partisan voting index and the incumbent's 2024 general election performance of 61.3 percent. Bob Onder secured the GOP nomination in the August 4 primary with roughly two-thirds of the vote, while Democrat Bethany Mann advanced as the challenger after prior unsuccessful bids in the district. These outcomes, combined with the area's consistent support for Republican candidates in recent cycles and limited polling shifts since the primary, underpin the market's assessment of a commanding Republican position ahead of the November general election. A late national Democratic wave, major scandal, or unforeseen turnout surge could narrow the margin, though structural factors limit the scope for such changes.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volume
$21,050End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Missouri's 3rd congressional district maintains a solid Republican tilt, reflected in its partisan voting index and the incumbent's 2024 general election performance of 61.3 percent. Bob Onder secured the GOP nomination in the August 4 primary with roughly two-thirds of the vote, while Democrat Bethany Mann advanced as the challenger after prior unsuccessful bids in the district. These outcomes, combined with the area's consistent support for Republican candidates in recent cycles and limited polling shifts since the primary, underpin the market's assessment of a commanding Republican position ahead of the November general election. A late national Democratic wave, major scandal, or unforeseen turnout surge could narrow the margin, though structural factors limit the scope for such changes.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$21,050End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Missouri's 3rd congressional district maintains a solid Republican tilt, reflected in its partisan voting index and the incumbent's 2024 general election performance of 61.3 percent. Bob Onder secured the GOP nomination in the August 4 primary with roughly two-thirds of the vote, while Democrat Bethany Mann advanced as the challenger after prior unsuccessful bids in the district. These outcomes, combined with the area's consistent support for Republican candidates in recent cycles and limited polling shifts since the primary, underpin the market's assessment of a commanding Republican position ahead of the November general election. A late national Democratic wave, major scandal, or unforeseen turnout surge could narrow the margin, though structural factors limit the scope for such changes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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