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icon for MLB: Player to Hit 40+ Home Runs

MLB: Player to Hit 40+ Home Runs

icon for MLB: Player to Hit 40+ Home Runs

MLB: Player to Hit 40+ Home Runs

$25,262 Vol.

Oct 11, 2026
Polymarket

$25,262 Vol.

Polymarket

Kyle Schwarber

$501 Vol.

95%

Yordan Alvarez

$954 Vol.

92%

Matt Olson

$1,172 Vol.

84%

Junior Caminero

$378 Vol.

83%

Hunter Goodman

$2,266 Vol.

77%

Munetaka Murakami

$500 Vol.

49%

Shohei Ohtani

$852 Vol.

24%

CJ Abrams

$1,242 Vol.

16%

Pete Alonso

$76 Vol.

9%

James Wood

$1,420 Vol.

15%

Colson Montgomery

$1,026 Vol.

13%

Dillon Dingler

$3,214 Vol.

11%

Christian Walker

$148 Vol.

10%

Kazuma Okamoto

$0 Vol.

10%

Brandon Lowe

$1,893 Vol.

9%

Jordan Walker

$587 Vol.

8%

Bryce Harper

$390 Vol.

7%

Miguel Vargas

$120 Vol.

7%

Ketel Marte

$363 Vol.

7%

Wilson Contreras

$399 Vol.

6%

$0 Vol.

6%

Nick Kurtz

$127 Vol.

6%

$0 Vol.

5%

Manny Machado

$222 Vol.

4%

Aaron Judge

$1,698 Vol.

3%

Mike Trout

$301 Vol.

3%

Juan Soto

$325 Vol.

3%

Shea Langeliers

$2,423 Vol.

1%

Ben Rice

$317 Vol.

50%

Byron Buxton

$2,347 Vol.

28%

This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed player hits 40 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or it is otherwise unclear if the listed player recorded a 40 or more home runs during 2026 MLB regular season within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Several players sit within 3–5 home runs of the 40-mark with roughly 45 games remaining in the 2026 regular season. Kyle Schwarber leads with 37, while Matt Olson, Yordan Alvarez, and Junior Caminero each have 35; Hunter Goodman follows at 33–34. These totals reflect strong first-half power output from middle-of-the-order bats in hitter-friendly parks and favorable matchups. Late-season factors include September call-ups that could alter lineups, potential rest or load management for veterans, and any prolonged cold streaks or injuries that might stall individual paces. Historical trends show that hitters at this stage frequently add 8–12 homers over the final stretch when healthy, keeping the path to 40-plus realistic for at least one contender.

This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed player hits 40 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or it is otherwise unclear if the listed player recorded a 40 or more home runs during 2026 MLB regular season within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$25,262
End Date
Oct 11, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 2, 2026, 6:04 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.mlb.com
This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed player hits 40 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or it is otherwise unclear if the listed player recorded a 40 or more home runs during 2026 MLB regular season within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed player hits 40 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or it is otherwise unclear if the listed player recorded a 40 or more home runs during 2026 MLB regular season within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Several players sit within 3–5 home runs of the 40-mark with roughly 45 games remaining in the 2026 regular season. Kyle Schwarber leads with 37, while Matt Olson, Yordan Alvarez, and Junior Caminero each have 35; Hunter Goodman follows at 33–34. These totals reflect strong first-half power output from middle-of-the-order bats in hitter-friendly parks and favorable matchups. Late-season factors include September call-ups that could alter lineups, potential rest or load management for veterans, and any prolonged cold streaks or injuries that might stall individual paces. Historical trends show that hitters at this stage frequently add 8–12 homers over the final stretch when healthy, keeping the path to 40-plus realistic for at least one contender.

This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed player hits 40 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or it is otherwise unclear if the listed player recorded a 40 or more home runs during 2026 MLB regular season within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$25,262
End Date
Oct 11, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 2, 2026, 6:04 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.mlb.com
This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed player hits 40 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or it is otherwise unclear if the listed player recorded a 40 or more home runs during 2026 MLB regular season within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"MLB: Player to Hit 40+ Home Runs" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 30 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Kyle Schwarber" at 95%, followed by "Yordan Alvarez" at 92%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 95¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 95% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "MLB: Player to Hit 40+ Home Runs" has generated $25.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 2, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "MLB: Player to Hit 40+ Home Runs," browse the 30 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "MLB: Player to Hit 40+ Home Runs" is "Kyle Schwarber" at 95%, meaning the market assigns a 95% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Yordan Alvarez" at 92%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "MLB: Player to Hit 40+ Home Runs" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.