The closely contested odds around 50% for an MLB four-homer game in 2026 reflect the feat's extreme historical scarcity—only 21 players have accomplished it league-wide—offset by elevated power environments and three such outbursts in 2025 alone. No player has repeated the performance through mid-August 2026, keeping "No" narrowly ahead in trader consensus. Key balancing factors include sustained high home-run rates among sluggers like Kyle Schwarber and Aaron Judge, plus favorable ballpark and pitching matchups that could produce another outlier game. Late-season hot streaks, expanded rosters, or playoff implications for contenders could quickly shift implied probabilities if a power hitter strings together multiple multi-homer outings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated0% chance
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NEW
Sep 28, 2026
0% chance
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Sep 28, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any player hits four or more home runs in a single game during the 2026 MLB regular season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Four home runs by a player in any length regular season game will count toward resolution. Inside-the-park home runs will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.
If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if it cannot be determined if a player hit four home runs in a single game within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The closely contested odds around 50% for an MLB four-homer game in 2026 reflect the feat's extreme historical scarcity—only 21 players have accomplished it league-wide—offset by elevated power environments and three such outbursts in 2025 alone. No player has repeated the performance through mid-August 2026, keeping "No" narrowly ahead in trader consensus. Key balancing factors include sustained high home-run rates among sluggers like Kyle Schwarber and Aaron Judge, plus favorable ballpark and pitching matchups that could produce another outlier game. Late-season hot streaks, expanded rosters, or playoff implications for contenders could quickly shift implied probabilities if a power hitter strings together multiple multi-homer outings.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any player hits four or more home runs in a single game during the 2026 MLB regular season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Four home runs by a player in any length regular season game will count toward resolution. Inside-the-park home runs will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.
If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if it cannot be determined if a player hit four home runs in a single game within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Four home runs by a player in any length regular season game will count toward resolution. Inside-the-park home runs will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.
If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if it cannot be determined if a player hit four home runs in a single game within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 28, 2026, 7:03 PM ET
Volume
$3End Date
Sep 28, 2026Market Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 7:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any player hits four or more home runs in a single game during the 2026 MLB regular season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Four home runs by a player in any length regular season game will count toward resolution. Inside-the-park home runs will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.
If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if it cannot be determined if a player hit four home runs in a single game within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The closely contested odds around 50% for an MLB four-homer game in 2026 reflect the feat's extreme historical scarcity—only 21 players have accomplished it league-wide—offset by elevated power environments and three such outbursts in 2025 alone. No player has repeated the performance through mid-August 2026, keeping "No" narrowly ahead in trader consensus. Key balancing factors include sustained high home-run rates among sluggers like Kyle Schwarber and Aaron Judge, plus favorable ballpark and pitching matchups that could produce another outlier game. Late-season hot streaks, expanded rosters, or playoff implications for contenders could quickly shift implied probabilities if a power hitter strings together multiple multi-homer outings.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any player hits four or more home runs in a single game during the 2026 MLB regular season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Four home runs by a player in any length regular season game will count toward resolution. Inside-the-park home runs will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.
If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if it cannot be determined if a player hit four home runs in a single game within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Four home runs by a player in any length regular season game will count toward resolution. Inside-the-park home runs will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.
If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if it cannot be determined if a player hit four home runs in a single game within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$3End Date
Sep 28, 2026Market Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 7:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The closely contested odds around 50% for an MLB four-homer game in 2026 reflect the feat's extreme historical scarcity—only 21 players have accomplished it league-wide—offset by elevated power environments and three such outbursts in 2025 alone. No player has repeated the performance through mid-August 2026, keeping "No" narrowly ahead in trader consensus. Key balancing factors include sustained high home-run rates among sluggers like Kyle Schwarber and Aaron Judge, plus favorable ballpark and pitching matchups that could produce another outlier game. Late-season hot streaks, expanded rosters, or playoff implications for contenders could quickly shift implied probabilities if a power hitter strings together multiple multi-homer outings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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