Persistent US-Cuba trade restrictions and the absence of any normalization steps continue to block commercial expansion by US firms into the island. Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel’s June 2026 remarks on foreign franchises emphasized economic equality without endorsing specific chains, offering no signal of policy change. No announcements, regulatory approvals, or bilateral agreements have emerged to facilitate market entry, while McDonald’s maintains only a restricted location on the Guantanamo Bay naval base. Traders price the 91.5% “No” outcome on these structural barriers, with no scheduled diplomatic events or legislative shifts likely to alter conditions before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated9% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
9% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if McDonald’s Corporation, or a McDonald’s franchisee or representative authorized to open or operate a McDonald’s restaurant in Cuba, announces that it will open or has opened any McDonald’s restaurant in Cuba, or if such an opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual McDonald’s restaurant opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a McDonald’s restaurant in Cuba will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening a McDonald’s restaurant, such as general business expansion statements, exploratory comments, or conditional announcements, will not count. Unlicensed restaurants, imitation restaurants, or other businesses using McDonald’s branding without authorization from McDonald’s Corporation will not qualify.
The resolution source will be official statements from McDonald’s Corporation or its authorized representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Persistent US-Cuba trade restrictions and the absence of any normalization steps continue to block commercial expansion by US firms into the island. Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel’s June 2026 remarks on foreign franchises emphasized economic equality without endorsing specific chains, offering no signal of policy change. No announcements, regulatory approvals, or bilateral agreements have emerged to facilitate market entry, while McDonald’s maintains only a restricted location on the Guantanamo Bay naval base. Traders price the 91.5% “No” outcome on these structural barriers, with no scheduled diplomatic events or legislative shifts likely to alter conditions before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if McDonald’s Corporation, or a McDonald’s franchisee or representative authorized to open or operate a McDonald’s restaurant in Cuba, announces that it will open or has opened any McDonald’s restaurant in Cuba, or if such an opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual McDonald’s restaurant opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a McDonald’s restaurant in Cuba will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening a McDonald’s restaurant, such as general business expansion statements, exploratory comments, or conditional announcements, will not count. Unlicensed restaurants, imitation restaurants, or other businesses using McDonald’s branding without authorization from McDonald’s Corporation will not qualify.
The resolution source will be official statements from McDonald’s Corporation or its authorized representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual McDonald’s restaurant opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a McDonald’s restaurant in Cuba will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening a McDonald’s restaurant, such as general business expansion statements, exploratory comments, or conditional announcements, will not count. Unlicensed restaurants, imitation restaurants, or other businesses using McDonald’s branding without authorization from McDonald’s Corporation will not qualify.
The resolution source will be official statements from McDonald’s Corporation or its authorized representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Jun 25, 2026, 9:05 PM ET
Volume
$1,253End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jun 25, 2026, 9:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if McDonald’s Corporation, or a McDonald’s franchisee or representative authorized to open or operate a McDonald’s restaurant in Cuba, announces that it will open or has opened any McDonald’s restaurant in Cuba, or if such an opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual McDonald’s restaurant opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a McDonald’s restaurant in Cuba will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening a McDonald’s restaurant, such as general business expansion statements, exploratory comments, or conditional announcements, will not count. Unlicensed restaurants, imitation restaurants, or other businesses using McDonald’s branding without authorization from McDonald’s Corporation will not qualify.
The resolution source will be official statements from McDonald’s Corporation or its authorized representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Persistent US-Cuba trade restrictions and the absence of any normalization steps continue to block commercial expansion by US firms into the island. Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel’s June 2026 remarks on foreign franchises emphasized economic equality without endorsing specific chains, offering no signal of policy change. No announcements, regulatory approvals, or bilateral agreements have emerged to facilitate market entry, while McDonald’s maintains only a restricted location on the Guantanamo Bay naval base. Traders price the 91.5% “No” outcome on these structural barriers, with no scheduled diplomatic events or legislative shifts likely to alter conditions before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if McDonald’s Corporation, or a McDonald’s franchisee or representative authorized to open or operate a McDonald’s restaurant in Cuba, announces that it will open or has opened any McDonald’s restaurant in Cuba, or if such an opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual McDonald’s restaurant opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a McDonald’s restaurant in Cuba will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening a McDonald’s restaurant, such as general business expansion statements, exploratory comments, or conditional announcements, will not count. Unlicensed restaurants, imitation restaurants, or other businesses using McDonald’s branding without authorization from McDonald’s Corporation will not qualify.
The resolution source will be official statements from McDonald’s Corporation or its authorized representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual McDonald’s restaurant opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a McDonald’s restaurant in Cuba will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening a McDonald’s restaurant, such as general business expansion statements, exploratory comments, or conditional announcements, will not count. Unlicensed restaurants, imitation restaurants, or other businesses using McDonald’s branding without authorization from McDonald’s Corporation will not qualify.
The resolution source will be official statements from McDonald’s Corporation or its authorized representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$1,253End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jun 25, 2026, 9:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent US-Cuba trade restrictions and the absence of any normalization steps continue to block commercial expansion by US firms into the island. Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel’s June 2026 remarks on foreign franchises emphasized economic equality without endorsing specific chains, offering no signal of policy change. No announcements, regulatory approvals, or bilateral agreements have emerged to facilitate market entry, while McDonald’s maintains only a restricted location on the Guantanamo Bay naval base. Traders price the 91.5% “No” outcome on these structural barriers, with no scheduled diplomatic events or legislative shifts likely to alter conditions before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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