Recent readings show Japan's core CPI YoY (excluding fresh food) hovering at 1.6% in June 2026 before Tokyo data ticked up to 1.9% in July, remaining below the Bank of Japan's 2% target amid energy subsidies and base effects, which explains the near-even market-implied odds between the ≤1.9% and 2.0-2.4% buckets. The Bank of Japan has repeatedly revised its fiscal 2026 core inflation projection higher—to as much as 2.8% in April before trimming it to the 2.3-2.7% range—citing persistent cost pass-through from a weaker yen, elevated crude prices linked to geopolitical tensions, and sticky core-core measures near 2.0-2.5%. Traders weigh these upside risks against ongoing policy support for households and moderating food inflation, with the closely contested pricing underscoring uncertainty over whether underlying domestic pressures will sustain above-target momentum or remain capped through year-end. Key near-term catalysts include further BOJ communications and monthly CPI releases that could clarify the trajectory.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated≤1.9% 49.0%
2.0-2.4% 48%
2.5-2.9% 1.4%
3.0-3.4% <1%
$37,270 Vol.
$37,270 Vol.
Jan 22, 2027
≤1.9%
49%
2.0-2.4%
48%
2.5-2.9%
1%
3.0-3.4%
1%
3.5-3.9%
<1%
4.0%+
<1%
≤1.9% 49.0%
2.0-2.4% 48%
2.5-2.9% 1.4%
3.0-3.4% <1%
$37,270 Vol.
$37,270 Vol.
Jan 22, 2027
≤1.9%
$18,007 Vol.
49%
2.0-2.4%
$10,611 Vol.
48%
2.5-2.9%
$5,149 Vol.
1%
3.0-3.4%
$1,322 Vol.
1%
3.5-3.9%
$840 Vol.
<1%
4.0%+
$1,339 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food (All items less fresh food, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.Recent readings show Japan's core CPI YoY (excluding fresh food) hovering at 1.6% in June 2026 before Tokyo data ticked up to 1.9% in July, remaining below the Bank of Japan's 2% target amid energy subsidies and base effects, which explains the near-even market-implied odds between the ≤1.9% and 2.0-2.4% buckets. The Bank of Japan has repeatedly revised its fiscal 2026 core inflation projection higher—to as much as 2.8% in April before trimming it to the 2.3-2.7% range—citing persistent cost pass-through from a weaker yen, elevated crude prices linked to geopolitical tensions, and sticky core-core measures near 2.0-2.5%. Traders weigh these upside risks against ongoing policy support for households and moderating food inflation, with the closely contested pricing underscoring uncertainty over whether underlying domestic pressures will sustain above-target momentum or remain capped through year-end. Key near-term catalysts include further BOJ communications and monthly CPI releases that could clarify the trajectory.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food (All items less fresh food, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Market Opened: Jun 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ET
Volume
$37,270End Date
Jan 22, 2027Market Opened
Jun 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food (All items less fresh food, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.Recent readings show Japan's core CPI YoY (excluding fresh food) hovering at 1.6% in June 2026 before Tokyo data ticked up to 1.9% in July, remaining below the Bank of Japan's 2% target amid energy subsidies and base effects, which explains the near-even market-implied odds between the ≤1.9% and 2.0-2.4% buckets. The Bank of Japan has repeatedly revised its fiscal 2026 core inflation projection higher—to as much as 2.8% in April before trimming it to the 2.3-2.7% range—citing persistent cost pass-through from a weaker yen, elevated crude prices linked to geopolitical tensions, and sticky core-core measures near 2.0-2.5%. Traders weigh these upside risks against ongoing policy support for households and moderating food inflation, with the closely contested pricing underscoring uncertainty over whether underlying domestic pressures will sustain above-target momentum or remain capped through year-end. Key near-term catalysts include further BOJ communications and monthly CPI releases that could clarify the trajectory.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food (All items less fresh food, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Volume
$37,270End Date
Jan 22, 2027Market Opened
Jun 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent readings show Japan's core CPI YoY (excluding fresh food) hovering at 1.6% in June 2026 before Tokyo data ticked up to 1.9% in July, remaining below the Bank of Japan's 2% target amid energy subsidies and base effects, which explains the near-even market-implied odds between the ≤1.9% and 2.0-2.4% buckets. The Bank of Japan has repeatedly revised its fiscal 2026 core inflation projection higher—to as much as 2.8% in April before trimming it to the 2.3-2.7% range—citing persistent cost pass-through from a weaker yen, elevated crude prices linked to geopolitical tensions, and sticky core-core measures near 2.0-2.5%. Traders weigh these upside risks against ongoing policy support for households and moderating food inflation, with the closely contested pricing underscoring uncertainty over whether underlying domestic pressures will sustain above-target momentum or remain capped through year-end. Key near-term catalysts include further BOJ communications and monthly CPI releases that could clarify the trajectory.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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