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Finance·Jerome Powell

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

icon for How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
Finance·Jerome Powell

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

Dec 31

Dec 31

$284,581 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$284,581 Vol.

Polymarket

4.8%

$59,299 Vol.

63%

5.0%

$81,004 Vol.

32%

5.2%

$25,519 Vol.

15%

5.5%

$5,202 Vol.

7%

5.7%

$4,220 Vol.

5%

6.0%

$3,052 Vol.

6%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between December 9, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).Recent upward pressure on the 10-year Treasury yield, currently trading near 4.65-4.70 percent as of mid-August 2026 after touching 4.72 percent earlier in the month, stems primarily from sticky inflation and shifting Federal Reserve expectations. July CPI came in at 3.4 percent year-over-year, only modestly lower, while the FOMC held the federal funds rate at 3.5-3.75 percent in late July with several members signaling openness to hikes later this year amid persistent price pressures. Market-implied odds reflect trader focus on whether yields can sustain moves above 4.8 percent before year-end, influenced by Treasury supply dynamics, labor market resilience, and upcoming data releases including the September CPI and FOMC meetings. These factors create a narrow window for further yield advances through December 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Volume
$284,581
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 5:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between December 9, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).Recent upward pressure on the 10-year Treasury yield, currently trading near 4.65-4.70 percent as of mid-August 2026 after touching 4.72 percent earlier in the month, stems primarily from sticky inflation and shifting Federal Reserve expectations. July CPI came in at 3.4 percent year-over-year, only modestly lower, while the FOMC held the federal funds rate at 3.5-3.75 percent in late July with several members signaling openness to hikes later this year amid persistent price pressures. Market-implied odds reflect trader focus on whether yields can sustain moves above 4.8 percent before year-end, influenced by Treasury supply dynamics, labor market resilience, and upcoming data releases including the September CPI and FOMC meetings. These factors create a narrow window for further yield advances through December 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Volume
$284,581
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 5:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 10 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "4.3%" at 100%, followed by "4.4%" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?" has generated $284.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 12, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?," browse the 10 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?" is "4.3%" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "4.4%" at 100%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.