**Low off-season influenza circulation in summer 2026 drives overwhelming market consensus toward a hospitalization rate below 0.1 per 100,000.** CDC FluView data through Week 30 (ending August 1, 2026) confirm seasonal influenza activity remains minimal nationwide, with clinical lab positivity at just 0.4–0.5%, outpatient ILI visits at 0.9%, and all jurisdictions reporting minimal activity levels. Earlier summer reports show weekly FluSurv-NET hospitalization rates already at or below 0.1–0.2 per 100,000 by late May (Week 21), consistent with typical post-peak decline after the 2025–26 season’s winter surge. Week 31 falls squarely in the annual low-transmission period when influenza viruses circulate at baseline levels outside the usual October–May window, with no evidence of atypical summer activity, novel strain emergence, or reporting anomalies that would elevate rates. Traders therefore assign the highest implied probability (85.8%) to <0.1, with only marginal odds on exactly 0.1 and negligible weight on >0.1, reflecting the strong historical precedent and current surveillance indicators. Upcoming Week 31 data from FluSurv-NET will provide final confirmation near resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFlu Hospitalization Rate Week 31, 2026?
Flu Hospitalization Rate Week 31, 2026?
<0.1 85.4%
0.1 10%
>0.1 1.1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 14, 2026
<0.1
85%
0.1
10%
>0.1
1%
<0.1 85.4%
0.1 10%
>0.1 1.1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 14, 2026
<0.1
$370 Vol.
85%
0.1
$180 Vol.
10%
>0.1
$385 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the weekly influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported by CDC FluSurv-NET for the specified week.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
CDC FluView reports the weekly FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate per 100,000 population to one decimal point (e.g., 0.1). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET weekly hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate, estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.**Low off-season influenza circulation in summer 2026 drives overwhelming market consensus toward a hospitalization rate below 0.1 per 100,000.**
CDC FluView data through Week 30 (ending August 1, 2026) confirm seasonal influenza activity remains minimal nationwide, with clinical lab positivity at just 0.4–0.5%, outpatient ILI visits at 0.9%, and all jurisdictions reporting minimal activity levels. Earlier summer reports show weekly FluSurv-NET hospitalization rates already at or below 0.1–0.2 per 100,000 by late May (Week 21), consistent with typical post-peak decline after the 2025–26 season’s winter surge.
Week 31 falls squarely in the annual low-transmission period when influenza viruses circulate at baseline levels outside the usual October–May window, with no evidence of atypical summer activity, novel strain emergence, or reporting anomalies that would elevate rates. Traders therefore assign the highest implied probability (85.8%) to <0.1, with only marginal odds on exactly 0.1 and negligible weight on >0.1, reflecting the strong historical precedent and current surveillance indicators. Upcoming Week 31 data from FluSurv-NET will provide final confirmation near resolution.
This market will resolve according to the weekly influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported by CDC FluSurv-NET for the specified week.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
CDC FluView reports the weekly FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate per 100,000 population to one decimal point (e.g., 0.1). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET weekly hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate, estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
CDC FluView reports the weekly FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate per 100,000 population to one decimal point (e.g., 0.1). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET weekly hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate, estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
Market Opened: Aug 8, 2026, 12:08 PM ET
Volume
$935End Date
Aug 14, 2026Market Opened
Aug 8, 2026, 12:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the weekly influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported by CDC FluSurv-NET for the specified week.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
CDC FluView reports the weekly FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate per 100,000 population to one decimal point (e.g., 0.1). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET weekly hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate, estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.**Low off-season influenza circulation in summer 2026 drives overwhelming market consensus toward a hospitalization rate below 0.1 per 100,000.**
CDC FluView data through Week 30 (ending August 1, 2026) confirm seasonal influenza activity remains minimal nationwide, with clinical lab positivity at just 0.4–0.5%, outpatient ILI visits at 0.9%, and all jurisdictions reporting minimal activity levels. Earlier summer reports show weekly FluSurv-NET hospitalization rates already at or below 0.1–0.2 per 100,000 by late May (Week 21), consistent with typical post-peak decline after the 2025–26 season’s winter surge.
Week 31 falls squarely in the annual low-transmission period when influenza viruses circulate at baseline levels outside the usual October–May window, with no evidence of atypical summer activity, novel strain emergence, or reporting anomalies that would elevate rates. Traders therefore assign the highest implied probability (85.8%) to <0.1, with only marginal odds on exactly 0.1 and negligible weight on >0.1, reflecting the strong historical precedent and current surveillance indicators. Upcoming Week 31 data from FluSurv-NET will provide final confirmation near resolution.
This market will resolve according to the weekly influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported by CDC FluSurv-NET for the specified week.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
CDC FluView reports the weekly FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate per 100,000 population to one decimal point (e.g., 0.1). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET weekly hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate, estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
CDC FluView reports the weekly FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate per 100,000 population to one decimal point (e.g., 0.1). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET weekly hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate, estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
Volume
$935End Date
Aug 14, 2026Market Opened
Aug 8, 2026, 12:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Low off-season influenza circulation in summer 2026 drives overwhelming market consensus toward a hospitalization rate below 0.1 per 100,000.** CDC FluView data through Week 30 (ending August 1, 2026) confirm seasonal influenza activity remains minimal nationwide, with clinical lab positivity at just 0.4–0.5%, outpatient ILI visits at 0.9%, and all jurisdictions reporting minimal activity levels. Earlier summer reports show weekly FluSurv-NET hospitalization rates already at or below 0.1–0.2 per 100,000 by late May (Week 21), consistent with typical post-peak decline after the 2025–26 season’s winter surge. Week 31 falls squarely in the annual low-transmission period when influenza viruses circulate at baseline levels outside the usual October–May window, with no evidence of atypical summer activity, novel strain emergence, or reporting anomalies that would elevate rates. Traders therefore assign the highest implied probability (85.8%) to <0.1, with only marginal odds on exactly 0.1 and negligible weight on >0.1, reflecting the strong historical precedent and current surveillance indicators. Upcoming Week 31 data from FluSurv-NET will provide final confirmation near resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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