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Politics·Florida

FL-07 Democratic Primary Winner

icon for FL-07 Democratic Primary Winner
Politics·Florida

FL-07 Democratic Primary Winner

Bale Dalton 97.5%

Alan Grayson 1.9%

Marialana Kinter 1.5%

Polymarket
NEW

Bale Dalton 97.5%

Alan Grayson 1.9%

Marialana Kinter 1.5%

Polymarket
NEW

Bale Dalton

$5,176 Vol.

98%

Alan Grayson

$960 Vol.

2%

Marialana Kinter

$3,094 Vol.

2%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Bale Dalton holds a commanding lead in the Florida 7th congressional district Democratic primary, scheduled for August 18, 2026, reflecting strong trader consensus around his fundraising totals exceeding $1.2 million, endorsements from House Democratic leadership and the DCCC Red to Blue program, and background as a Navy veteran and former NASA chief of staff. These factors have positioned him ahead of challengers including former U.S. Representative Alan Grayson and Marialana Kinter in a race focused on affordability, living wages, and district priorities. Recent campaign finance reports and internal polling have reinforced momentum for the frontrunner. Late shifts remain possible if turnout patterns favor lesser-known candidates or if new endorsements or disclosures emerge before primary day, though no major developments have altered the current positioning.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$9,229
End Date
Aug 18, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 26, 2026, 4:54 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Bale Dalton holds a commanding lead in the Florida 7th congressional district Democratic primary, scheduled for August 18, 2026, reflecting strong trader consensus around his fundraising totals exceeding $1.2 million, endorsements from House Democratic leadership and the DCCC Red to Blue program, and background as a Navy veteran and former NASA chief of staff. These factors have positioned him ahead of challengers including former U.S. Representative Alan Grayson and Marialana Kinter in a race focused on affordability, living wages, and district priorities. Recent campaign finance reports and internal polling have reinforced momentum for the frontrunner. Late shifts remain possible if turnout patterns favor lesser-known candidates or if new endorsements or disclosures emerge before primary day, though no major developments have altered the current positioning.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$9,229
End Date
Aug 18, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 26, 2026, 4:54 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"FL-07 Democratic Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Bale Dalton" at 98%, followed by "Alan Grayson" at 2%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 98¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 98% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"FL-07 Democratic Primary Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jul 26, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "FL-07 Democratic Primary Winner," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "FL-07 Democratic Primary Winner" is "Bale Dalton" at 98%, meaning the market assigns a 98% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Alan Grayson" at 2%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "FL-07 Democratic Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.