The elevated federal funds rate near 3.63% and the Fed's sequence of holds through mid-2026 reflect resilient GDP growth, solid labor market conditions with unemployment around 4.1%, and inflation remaining above the 2% target at roughly 3.4-3.5%. These factors underpin the 94.5% market-implied probability against an unscheduled rate cut before 2027, as trader capital positions price a data-dependent stance favoring stability or modest tightening over emergency easing. Recent FOMC communications and futures pricing have shifted from earlier cut expectations toward potential hikes by year-end. A sharp deterioration in financial conditions, such as a major banking stress event or severe geopolitical escalation triggering a sudden contraction, could still alter that path ahead of the September FOMC.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated6% chance
$136,916 Vol.
$136,916 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
6% chance
$136,916 Vol.
$136,916 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.The elevated federal funds rate near 3.63% and the Fed's sequence of holds through mid-2026 reflect resilient GDP growth, solid labor market conditions with unemployment around 4.1%, and inflation remaining above the 2% target at roughly 3.4-3.5%. These factors underpin the 94.5% market-implied probability against an unscheduled rate cut before 2027, as trader capital positions price a data-dependent stance favoring stability or modest tightening over emergency easing. Recent FOMC communications and futures pricing have shifted from earlier cut expectations toward potential hikes by year-end. A sharp deterioration in financial conditions, such as a major banking stress event or severe geopolitical escalation triggering a sudden contraction, could still alter that path ahead of the September FOMC.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
Market Opened: Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ET
Volume
$136,916End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.The elevated federal funds rate near 3.63% and the Fed's sequence of holds through mid-2026 reflect resilient GDP growth, solid labor market conditions with unemployment around 4.1%, and inflation remaining above the 2% target at roughly 3.4-3.5%. These factors underpin the 94.5% market-implied probability against an unscheduled rate cut before 2027, as trader capital positions price a data-dependent stance favoring stability or modest tightening over emergency easing. Recent FOMC communications and futures pricing have shifted from earlier cut expectations toward potential hikes by year-end. A sharp deterioration in financial conditions, such as a major banking stress event or severe geopolitical escalation triggering a sudden contraction, could still alter that path ahead of the September FOMC.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
Volume
$136,916End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The elevated federal funds rate near 3.63% and the Fed's sequence of holds through mid-2026 reflect resilient GDP growth, solid labor market conditions with unemployment around 4.1%, and inflation remaining above the 2% target at roughly 3.4-3.5%. These factors underpin the 94.5% market-implied probability against an unscheduled rate cut before 2027, as trader capital positions price a data-dependent stance favoring stability or modest tightening over emergency easing. Recent FOMC communications and futures pricing have shifted from earlier cut expectations toward potential hikes by year-end. A sharp deterioration in financial conditions, such as a major banking stress event or severe geopolitical escalation triggering a sudden contraction, could still alter that path ahead of the September FOMC.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions