The Federal Reserve's decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% for a fifth consecutive meeting in July 2026, amid a 9-3 vote with three dissents favoring a 25 basis point hike, underscores the market-implied 61.5% probability of no change at the January 2027 FOMC meeting. Elevated inflation relative to the 2% target, driven partly by supply shocks in energy and other sectors, combined with solid economic expansion, strong productivity, and a stable labor market, supports the trader consensus for steady policy over near-term adjustments. Forward-looking probabilities for a 25 basis point increase at 20.5% reflect lingering hawkish signals, while the lower odds on cuts highlight limited downside risks priced in given current data. Key upcoming catalysts include the September FOMC meeting and forthcoming inflation and employment releases that could shift rate path expectations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNo change 62%
25 bps increase 21%
25 bps decrease 15%
50+ bps decrease 5.5%
$33,590 Vol.
$33,590 Vol.
Jan 27, 2027
50+ bps decrease
6%
25 bps decrease
15%
No change
62%
25 bps increase
21%
50+ bps increase
2%
No change 62%
25 bps increase 21%
25 bps decrease 15%
50+ bps decrease 5.5%
$33,590 Vol.
$33,590 Vol.
Jan 27, 2027
50+ bps decrease
$3,200 Vol.
6%
25 bps decrease
$7,272 Vol.
15%
No change
$13,629 Vol.
62%
25 bps increase
$8,035 Vol.
21%
50+ bps increase
$1,453 Vol.
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.The Federal Reserve's decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% for a fifth consecutive meeting in July 2026, amid a 9-3 vote with three dissents favoring a 25 basis point hike, underscores the market-implied 61.5% probability of no change at the January 2027 FOMC meeting. Elevated inflation relative to the 2% target, driven partly by supply shocks in energy and other sectors, combined with solid economic expansion, strong productivity, and a stable labor market, supports the trader consensus for steady policy over near-term adjustments. Forward-looking probabilities for a 25 basis point increase at 20.5% reflect lingering hawkish signals, while the lower odds on cuts highlight limited downside risks priced in given current data. Key upcoming catalysts include the September FOMC meeting and forthcoming inflation and employment releases that could shift rate path expectations.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ET
Volume
$33,590End Date
Jan 27, 2027Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.The Federal Reserve's decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% for a fifth consecutive meeting in July 2026, amid a 9-3 vote with three dissents favoring a 25 basis point hike, underscores the market-implied 61.5% probability of no change at the January 2027 FOMC meeting. Elevated inflation relative to the 2% target, driven partly by supply shocks in energy and other sectors, combined with solid economic expansion, strong productivity, and a stable labor market, supports the trader consensus for steady policy over near-term adjustments. Forward-looking probabilities for a 25 basis point increase at 20.5% reflect lingering hawkish signals, while the lower odds on cuts highlight limited downside risks priced in given current data. Key upcoming catalysts include the September FOMC meeting and forthcoming inflation and employment releases that could shift rate path expectations.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$33,590End Date
Jan 27, 2027Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Federal Reserve's decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% for a fifth consecutive meeting in July 2026, amid a 9-3 vote with three dissents favoring a 25 basis point hike, underscores the market-implied 61.5% probability of no change at the January 2027 FOMC meeting. Elevated inflation relative to the 2% target, driven partly by supply shocks in energy and other sectors, combined with solid economic expansion, strong productivity, and a stable labor market, supports the trader consensus for steady policy over near-term adjustments. Forward-looking probabilities for a 25 basis point increase at 20.5% reflect lingering hawkish signals, while the lower odds on cuts highlight limited downside risks priced in given current data. Key upcoming catalysts include the September FOMC meeting and forthcoming inflation and employment releases that could shift rate path expectations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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