Michigan stands out among the tossup Senate contests as the clearest Democratic hold opportunity due to its status as an open seat in a battleground state where recent polling shows nominee Abdul El-Sayed competitive with or ahead of Republican Mike Rogers following a high-turnout August primary. National headwinds for Republicans, including soft economic sentiment and turnout dynamics favoring Democrats, have kept the race tight. In contrast, Republican-held seats in Alaska, Maine, Ohio, Iowa, and Texas have tightened into tossups after Cook Political Report shifts and strong showings by challengers such as Mary Peltola and Sherrod Brown, but each carries steeper structural challenges for a Democratic pickup. Trader consensus reflects Michigan’s relatively favorable positioning for Democrats to retain the seat amid these variables.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedDems' best tossup Senate race?
Dems' best tossup Senate race?
Michigan 66%
Alaska 25%
Iowa 24%
Maine 24%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Michigan
66%
Alaska
25%
Iowa
24%
Maine
24%
Texas
23%
Ohio
23%
Michigan 66%
Alaska 25%
Iowa 24%
Maine 24%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Michigan
$0 Vol.
66%
Alaska
$0 Vol.
25%
Iowa
$0 Vol.
24%
Maine
$0 Vol.
24%
Texas
$0 Vol.
23%
Ohio
$0 Vol.
23%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Democrat, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Democrats, this market will resolve in favor of the Democrat with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Michigan stands out among the tossup Senate contests as the clearest Democratic hold opportunity due to its status as an open seat in a battleground state where recent polling shows nominee Abdul El-Sayed competitive with or ahead of Republican Mike Rogers following a high-turnout August primary. National headwinds for Republicans, including soft economic sentiment and turnout dynamics favoring Democrats, have kept the race tight. In contrast, Republican-held seats in Alaska, Maine, Ohio, Iowa, and Texas have tightened into tossups after Cook Political Report shifts and strong showings by challengers such as Mary Peltola and Sherrod Brown, but each carries steeper structural challenges for a Democratic pickup. Trader consensus reflects Michigan’s relatively favorable positioning for Democrats to retain the seat amid these variables.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Democrat, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Democrats, this market will resolve in favor of the Democrat with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Democrat, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Democrats, this market will resolve in favor of the Democrat with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 1:44 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 1:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Democrat, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Democrats, this market will resolve in favor of the Democrat with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Michigan stands out among the tossup Senate contests as the clearest Democratic hold opportunity due to its status as an open seat in a battleground state where recent polling shows nominee Abdul El-Sayed competitive with or ahead of Republican Mike Rogers following a high-turnout August primary. National headwinds for Republicans, including soft economic sentiment and turnout dynamics favoring Democrats, have kept the race tight. In contrast, Republican-held seats in Alaska, Maine, Ohio, Iowa, and Texas have tightened into tossups after Cook Political Report shifts and strong showings by challengers such as Mary Peltola and Sherrod Brown, but each carries steeper structural challenges for a Democratic pickup. Trader consensus reflects Michigan’s relatively favorable positioning for Democrats to retain the seat amid these variables.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Democrat, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Democrats, this market will resolve in favor of the Democrat with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Democrat, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Democrats, this market will resolve in favor of the Democrat with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$0End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 1:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Michigan stands out among the tossup Senate contests as the clearest Democratic hold opportunity due to its status as an open seat in a battleground state where recent polling shows nominee Abdul El-Sayed competitive with or ahead of Republican Mike Rogers following a high-turnout August primary. National headwinds for Republicans, including soft economic sentiment and turnout dynamics favoring Democrats, have kept the race tight. In contrast, Republican-held seats in Alaska, Maine, Ohio, Iowa, and Texas have tightened into tossups after Cook Political Report shifts and strong showings by challengers such as Mary Peltola and Sherrod Brown, but each carries steeper structural challenges for a Democratic pickup. Trader consensus reflects Michigan’s relatively favorable positioning for Democrats to retain the seat amid these variables.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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