**TX-11 remains a solidly Republican district heading into the November 2026 general election, with incumbent August Pfluger facing Democrat Claire Reynolds.** Pfluger secured the Republican nomination unopposed after the March 2026 primary, while Reynolds advanced from the Democratic primary. The district’s strong Republican lean—reflected in its partisan voting index and consistent past results—underpins trader pricing that heavily favors a Republican hold. All listed Republican victory margin brackets trade at identical levels, indicating the market views the exact margin as uncertain but the outcome directionally clear, with the Democrat-win contract priced lower. The race’s non-competitive character stems from structural factors including the district’s rural and conservative composition in West Texas and Pfluger’s established incumbency advantage. Limited recent developments, such as the completed primaries and absence of major scandals or national shifts directly affecting the seat, have kept probabilities stable. Potential separators include unusually high or low turnout in this low-salience district, broader 2026 midterm dynamics, or late-cycle campaign spending, though historical patterns suggest the margin will align with prior cycles rather than produce an upset. Resolution hinges on certified November results.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRepublican 45%+ 37%
Republican 40-45% 37%
Republican 35-40% 37%
Republican 30-35% 37%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republican 45%+
37%
Republican 40-45%
37%
Republican 35-40%
37%
Republican 30-35%
37%
Republican 25-30%
37%
Republican 20-25%
37%
Republican 15-20%
37%
Republican 5-15%
37%
Republican 0-5%
37%
Democrat Wins
23%
Republican 45%+ 37%
Republican 40-45% 37%
Republican 35-40% 37%
Republican 30-35% 37%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republican 45%+
$0 Vol.
37%
Republican 40-45%
$0 Vol.
37%
Republican 35-40%
$0 Vol.
37%
Republican 30-35%
$0 Vol.
37%
Republican 25-30%
$0 Vol.
37%
Republican 20-25%
$0 Vol.
37%
Republican 15-20%
$0 Vol.
37%
Republican 5-15%
$0 Vol.
37%
Republican 0-5%
$0 Vol.
37%
Democrat Wins
$243 Vol.
23%
The 2026 TX-11 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 TX-11 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**TX-11 remains a solidly Republican district heading into the November 2026 general election, with incumbent August Pfluger facing Democrat Claire Reynolds.** Pfluger secured the Republican nomination unopposed after the March 2026 primary, while Reynolds advanced from the Democratic primary. The district’s strong Republican lean—reflected in its partisan voting index and consistent past results—underpins trader pricing that heavily favors a Republican hold. All listed Republican victory margin brackets trade at identical levels, indicating the market views the exact margin as uncertain but the outcome directionally clear, with the Democrat-win contract priced lower.
The race’s non-competitive character stems from structural factors including the district’s rural and conservative composition in West Texas and Pfluger’s established incumbency advantage. Limited recent developments, such as the completed primaries and absence of major scandals or national shifts directly affecting the seat, have kept probabilities stable. Potential separators include unusually high or low turnout in this low-salience district, broader 2026 midterm dynamics, or late-cycle campaign spending, though historical patterns suggest the margin will align with prior cycles rather than produce an upset. Resolution hinges on certified November results.
The 2026 TX-11 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 TX-11 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 TX-11 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 11, 2026, 3:11 PM ET
Volume
$243End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 3:11 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 TX-11 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 TX-11 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**TX-11 remains a solidly Republican district heading into the November 2026 general election, with incumbent August Pfluger facing Democrat Claire Reynolds.** Pfluger secured the Republican nomination unopposed after the March 2026 primary, while Reynolds advanced from the Democratic primary. The district’s strong Republican lean—reflected in its partisan voting index and consistent past results—underpins trader pricing that heavily favors a Republican hold. All listed Republican victory margin brackets trade at identical levels, indicating the market views the exact margin as uncertain but the outcome directionally clear, with the Democrat-win contract priced lower.
The race’s non-competitive character stems from structural factors including the district’s rural and conservative composition in West Texas and Pfluger’s established incumbency advantage. Limited recent developments, such as the completed primaries and absence of major scandals or national shifts directly affecting the seat, have kept probabilities stable. Potential separators include unusually high or low turnout in this low-salience district, broader 2026 midterm dynamics, or late-cycle campaign spending, though historical patterns suggest the margin will align with prior cycles rather than produce an upset. Resolution hinges on certified November results.
The 2026 TX-11 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 TX-11 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 TX-11 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$243End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 3:11 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**TX-11 remains a solidly Republican district heading into the November 2026 general election, with incumbent August Pfluger facing Democrat Claire Reynolds.** Pfluger secured the Republican nomination unopposed after the March 2026 primary, while Reynolds advanced from the Democratic primary. The district’s strong Republican lean—reflected in its partisan voting index and consistent past results—underpins trader pricing that heavily favors a Republican hold. All listed Republican victory margin brackets trade at identical levels, indicating the market views the exact margin as uncertain but the outcome directionally clear, with the Democrat-win contract priced lower. The race’s non-competitive character stems from structural factors including the district’s rural and conservative composition in West Texas and Pfluger’s established incumbency advantage. Limited recent developments, such as the completed primaries and absence of major scandals or national shifts directly affecting the seat, have kept probabilities stable. Potential separators include unusually high or low turnout in this low-salience district, broader 2026 midterm dynamics, or late-cycle campaign spending, though historical patterns suggest the margin will align with prior cycles rather than produce an upset. Resolution hinges on certified November results.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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