The district's strong Democratic partisan lean, reflected in a D+26 Cook Partisan Voting Index and the incumbent's 73 percent margin in the prior cycle, anchors trader consensus around the Democratic nominee. Kevin Mullin secured the party's nomination in the June 2026 top-two primary with roughly two-thirds of the vote against limited intra-party opposition, advancing to face Republican Charles Hoelter in November. Official ratings classify the seat as Solid Democratic, consistent with the area's voting patterns and fundraising edge. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unprecedented national shift could theoretically alter the trajectory, though structural and historical factors limit realistic paths for the Republican contender to close the gap.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCA-15 House Election Winner
CA-15 House Election Winner
$121,677 Vol.
$121,677 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
2%
$121,677 Vol.
$121,677 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$93,610 Vol.
95%
Republican Party
$28,067 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The district's strong Democratic partisan lean, reflected in a D+26 Cook Partisan Voting Index and the incumbent's 73 percent margin in the prior cycle, anchors trader consensus around the Democratic nominee. Kevin Mullin secured the party's nomination in the June 2026 top-two primary with roughly two-thirds of the vote against limited intra-party opposition, advancing to face Republican Charles Hoelter in November. Official ratings classify the seat as Solid Democratic, consistent with the area's voting patterns and fundraising edge. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unprecedented national shift could theoretically alter the trajectory, though structural and historical factors limit realistic paths for the Republican contender to close the gap.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
Volume
$121,677End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The district's strong Democratic partisan lean, reflected in a D+26 Cook Partisan Voting Index and the incumbent's 73 percent margin in the prior cycle, anchors trader consensus around the Democratic nominee. Kevin Mullin secured the party's nomination in the June 2026 top-two primary with roughly two-thirds of the vote against limited intra-party opposition, advancing to face Republican Charles Hoelter in November. Official ratings classify the seat as Solid Democratic, consistent with the area's voting patterns and fundraising edge. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unprecedented national shift could theoretically alter the trajectory, though structural and historical factors limit realistic paths for the Republican contender to close the gap.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$121,677End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The district's strong Democratic partisan lean, reflected in a D+26 Cook Partisan Voting Index and the incumbent's 73 percent margin in the prior cycle, anchors trader consensus around the Democratic nominee. Kevin Mullin secured the party's nomination in the June 2026 top-two primary with roughly two-thirds of the vote against limited intra-party opposition, advancing to face Republican Charles Hoelter in November. Official ratings classify the seat as Solid Democratic, consistent with the area's voting patterns and fundraising edge. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unprecedented national shift could theoretically alter the trajectory, though structural and historical factors limit realistic paths for the Republican contender to close the gap.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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