Brazil's central bank has revised its 2026 IPCA inflation projection upward to 5.2%, citing resilient economic activity, a tight labor market, and persistent pressures that have kept expectations unanchored above the 3% target. Recent Selic rate cuts totaling 100 basis points through August 2026, bringing the benchmark to 14.00%, reflect a cautious easing cycle even as the bank flagged upside risks and raised its Q4 2027 forecast to 3.7%. July 2026 IPCA readings near 4.4-4.5% year-over-year and successive Focus survey upward revisions have reinforced trader consensus around the 5.00-5.49% band, which now carries a 55.5% implied probability, while moderating momentum in core measures limits support for sub-5% outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated5.00-5.49% 55.5%
5.50-5.99% 23.5%
4.50-4.99% 17.7%
4.00-4.49% 2.8%
$93,548 Vol.
$93,548 Vol.
Jan 12, 2027
<3.00%
1%
3.00-3.49%
1%
3.50-3.99%
2%
4.00-4.49%
3%
4.50-4.99%
18%
5.00-5.49%
55%
5.50-5.99%
24%
6.00-6.49%
2%
6.50-6.99%
<1%
7.00%+
3%
5.00-5.49% 55.5%
5.50-5.99% 23.5%
4.50-4.99% 17.7%
4.00-4.49% 2.8%
$93,548 Vol.
$93,548 Vol.
Jan 12, 2027
<3.00%
$5,669 Vol.
1%
3.00-3.49%
$5,739 Vol.
1%
3.50-3.99%
$13,142 Vol.
2%
4.00-4.49%
$13,506 Vol.
3%
4.50-4.99%
$15,088 Vol.
18%
5.00-5.49%
$13,342 Vol.
55%
5.50-5.99%
$9,262 Vol.
24%
6.00-6.49%
$6,438 Vol.
2%
6.50-6.99%
$6,612 Vol.
<1%
7.00%+
$4,751 Vol.
3%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlBrazil's central bank has revised its 2026 IPCA inflation projection upward to 5.2%, citing resilient economic activity, a tight labor market, and persistent pressures that have kept expectations unanchored above the 3% target. Recent Selic rate cuts totaling 100 basis points through August 2026, bringing the benchmark to 14.00%, reflect a cautious easing cycle even as the bank flagged upside risks and raised its Q4 2027 forecast to 3.7%. July 2026 IPCA readings near 4.4-4.5% year-over-year and successive Focus survey upward revisions have reinforced trader consensus around the 5.00-5.49% band, which now carries a 55.5% implied probability, while moderating momentum in core measures limits support for sub-5% outcomes.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Market Opened: Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ET
Volume
$93,548End Date
Jan 12, 2027Market Opened
Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlBrazil's central bank has revised its 2026 IPCA inflation projection upward to 5.2%, citing resilient economic activity, a tight labor market, and persistent pressures that have kept expectations unanchored above the 3% target. Recent Selic rate cuts totaling 100 basis points through August 2026, bringing the benchmark to 14.00%, reflect a cautious easing cycle even as the bank flagged upside risks and raised its Q4 2027 forecast to 3.7%. July 2026 IPCA readings near 4.4-4.5% year-over-year and successive Focus survey upward revisions have reinforced trader consensus around the 5.00-5.49% band, which now carries a 55.5% implied probability, while moderating momentum in core measures limits support for sub-5% outcomes.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Volume
$93,548End Date
Jan 12, 2027Market Opened
Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Brazil's central bank has revised its 2026 IPCA inflation projection upward to 5.2%, citing resilient economic activity, a tight labor market, and persistent pressures that have kept expectations unanchored above the 3% target. Recent Selic rate cuts totaling 100 basis points through August 2026, bringing the benchmark to 14.00%, reflect a cautious easing cycle even as the bank flagged upside risks and raised its Q4 2027 forecast to 3.7%. July 2026 IPCA readings near 4.4-4.5% year-over-year and successive Focus survey upward revisions have reinforced trader consensus around the 5.00-5.49% band, which now carries a 55.5% implied probability, while moderating momentum in core measures limits support for sub-5% outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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