Taylor Swift’s “I Knew It, I Knew You,” the Toy Story 5 soundtrack single, drives the 67.5% implied probability for the Billboard Hot 100 #2 spot week of August 22 through sustained top-three performance, robust streaming, radio airplay, and sales that have kept it charting strongly since its No. 1 debut. Traders view its consistent momentum and Swift’s track record as the clearest signal amid a crowded field. Several unnamed or lower-probability tracks, including Ariana Grande’s “hate that i made you love me” at 17.6%, sit behind due to weaker current trajectories or recent release timing. The next chart update and any final streaming surges remain the key near-term catalysts that could shift positioning before the tracking week locks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedBillboard Hot 100 #2 Song Week of August 22
Billboard Hot 100 #2 Song Week of August 22
I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift 68%
hate that i made you love me - Ariana Grande 17.5%
Boston - Stella Lefty 12%
Been By Now - Morgan Wallen 1.3%
$12,822 Vol.
$12,822 Vol.
Aug 18, 2026
I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift
68%
hate that i made you love me - Ariana Grande
18%
Boston - Stella Lefty
12%
Been By Now - Morgan Wallen
1%
Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley
1%
Be Her - Ella Langley
<1%
Drop Dead - Olivia Rodrigo
<1%
Petal - Ariana Grande
<1%
I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift 68%
hate that i made you love me - Ariana Grande 17.5%
Boston - Stella Lefty 12%
Been By Now - Morgan Wallen 1.3%
$12,822 Vol.
$12,822 Vol.
Aug 18, 2026
I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift
$4,540 Vol.
68%
hate that i made you love me - Ariana Grande
$1,624 Vol.
18%
Boston - Stella Lefty
$3,865 Vol.
12%
Been By Now - Morgan Wallen
$1,127 Vol.
1%
Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley
$487 Vol.
1%
Be Her - Ella Langley
$378 Vol.
<1%
Drop Dead - Olivia Rodrigo
$375 Vol.
<1%
Petal - Ariana Grande
$426 Vol.
<1%
Billboard updates its Hot 100 songs chart each Tuesday (with adjusted release schedules on some holiday weeks), reflecting data from the previous week (Friday-Thursday). Each Billboard chart is then titled “Week of (date of the upcoming Saturday)”.
This market will resolve according to the number 2 song on the Billboard Hot 100 chart titled “Week of August 22, 2026”. Songs will be primarily ranked by order on the specified chart. If two or more songs are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the songs' listed titles. This market will resolve to the song that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant chart is published. If the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the specified week is not published within 14 calendar days of the expected release date, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be the official Billboard Hot 100 chart, published on the Billboard website (https://www.billboard.com/charts/hot-100/) or through other official Billboard channels.Taylor Swift’s “I Knew It, I Knew You,” the Toy Story 5 soundtrack single, drives the 67.5% implied probability for the Billboard Hot 100 #2 spot week of August 22 through sustained top-three performance, robust streaming, radio airplay, and sales that have kept it charting strongly since its No. 1 debut. Traders view its consistent momentum and Swift’s track record as the clearest signal amid a crowded field. Several unnamed or lower-probability tracks, including Ariana Grande’s “hate that i made you love me” at 17.6%, sit behind due to weaker current trajectories or recent release timing. The next chart update and any final streaming surges remain the key near-term catalysts that could shift positioning before the tracking week locks.
Billboard updates its Hot 100 songs chart each Tuesday (with adjusted release schedules on some holiday weeks), reflecting data from the previous week (Friday-Thursday). Each Billboard chart is then titled “Week of (date of the upcoming Saturday)”.
This market will resolve according to the number 2 song on the Billboard Hot 100 chart titled “Week of August 22, 2026”. Songs will be primarily ranked by order on the specified chart. If two or more songs are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the songs' listed titles. This market will resolve to the song that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant chart is published. If the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the specified week is not published within 14 calendar days of the expected release date, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be the official Billboard Hot 100 chart, published on the Billboard website (https://www.billboard.com/charts/hot-100/) or through other official Billboard channels.
This market will resolve according to the number 2 song on the Billboard Hot 100 chart titled “Week of August 22, 2026”. Songs will be primarily ranked by order on the specified chart. If two or more songs are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the songs' listed titles. This market will resolve to the song that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant chart is published. If the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the specified week is not published within 14 calendar days of the expected release date, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be the official Billboard Hot 100 chart, published on the Billboard website (https://www.billboard.com/charts/hot-100/) or through other official Billboard channels.
Market Opened: Aug 8, 2026, 11:44 AM ET
Volume
$12,822End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
Aug 8, 2026, 11:44 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Billboard updates its Hot 100 songs chart each Tuesday (with adjusted release schedules on some holiday weeks), reflecting data from the previous week (Friday-Thursday). Each Billboard chart is then titled “Week of (date of the upcoming Saturday)”.
This market will resolve according to the number 2 song on the Billboard Hot 100 chart titled “Week of August 22, 2026”. Songs will be primarily ranked by order on the specified chart. If two or more songs are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the songs' listed titles. This market will resolve to the song that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant chart is published. If the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the specified week is not published within 14 calendar days of the expected release date, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be the official Billboard Hot 100 chart, published on the Billboard website (https://www.billboard.com/charts/hot-100/) or through other official Billboard channels.Taylor Swift’s “I Knew It, I Knew You,” the Toy Story 5 soundtrack single, drives the 67.5% implied probability for the Billboard Hot 100 #2 spot week of August 22 through sustained top-three performance, robust streaming, radio airplay, and sales that have kept it charting strongly since its No. 1 debut. Traders view its consistent momentum and Swift’s track record as the clearest signal amid a crowded field. Several unnamed or lower-probability tracks, including Ariana Grande’s “hate that i made you love me” at 17.6%, sit behind due to weaker current trajectories or recent release timing. The next chart update and any final streaming surges remain the key near-term catalysts that could shift positioning before the tracking week locks.
Billboard updates its Hot 100 songs chart each Tuesday (with adjusted release schedules on some holiday weeks), reflecting data from the previous week (Friday-Thursday). Each Billboard chart is then titled “Week of (date of the upcoming Saturday)”.
This market will resolve according to the number 2 song on the Billboard Hot 100 chart titled “Week of August 22, 2026”. Songs will be primarily ranked by order on the specified chart. If two or more songs are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the songs' listed titles. This market will resolve to the song that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant chart is published. If the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the specified week is not published within 14 calendar days of the expected release date, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be the official Billboard Hot 100 chart, published on the Billboard website (https://www.billboard.com/charts/hot-100/) or through other official Billboard channels.
This market will resolve according to the number 2 song on the Billboard Hot 100 chart titled “Week of August 22, 2026”. Songs will be primarily ranked by order on the specified chart. If two or more songs are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the songs' listed titles. This market will resolve to the song that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant chart is published. If the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the specified week is not published within 14 calendar days of the expected release date, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be the official Billboard Hot 100 chart, published on the Billboard website (https://www.billboard.com/charts/hot-100/) or through other official Billboard channels.
Volume
$12,822End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
Aug 8, 2026, 11:44 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Taylor Swift’s “I Knew It, I Knew You,” the Toy Story 5 soundtrack single, drives the 67.5% implied probability for the Billboard Hot 100 #2 spot week of August 22 through sustained top-three performance, robust streaming, radio airplay, and sales that have kept it charting strongly since its No. 1 debut. Traders view its consistent momentum and Swift’s track record as the clearest signal amid a crowded field. Several unnamed or lower-probability tracks, including Ariana Grande’s “hate that i made you love me” at 17.6%, sit behind due to weaker current trajectories or recent release timing. The next chart update and any final streaming surges remain the key near-term catalysts that could shift positioning before the tracking week locks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRelated
Will "hate that i made you love me - Ariana Grande" be the Billboard Hot 100 #2 song for the week of August 29?
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Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of August 22?
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Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of August 29?
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