Alibaba’s recent full-stack AI announcements, including its Zhenwu V900 chip described as China’s most powerful and plans to train Qwen 4 with future models scaling to 5–10 trillion parameters, have positioned the company ahead in trader sentiment for the end-of-November resolution. The closely matched odds around 50 percent across multiple contenders reflect uncertainty over which lab will demonstrate superior large language model capabilities or market traction by then. Z.ai and Moonshot maintain mid-teen implied probabilities on the strength of their GLM and Kimi releases plus enterprise deployments, while regulatory scrutiny of DeepSeek and Moonshot over alleged data routing to U.S. models introduces downside risk for those names. DeepSeek’s efficient V4.1-Flash updates and open-weight momentum continue to support its niche, but Alibaba’s infrastructure scale and self-reliance push currently anchor the leading consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAlibaba 56%
Z.ai 21%
Moonshot 19%
Baidu 3.3%
NEW
NEW
Nov 30, 2026
Alibaba
56%
Z.ai
21%
Moonshot
19%
Baidu
3%
ByteDance
3%
MiniMax
3%
DeepSeek
3%
Meituan
3%
Tencent
3%
Xiaomi
2%
StepFun
<1%
Alibaba 56%
Z.ai 21%
Moonshot 19%
Baidu 3.3%
NEW
NEW
Nov 30, 2026
Alibaba
$1,514 Vol.
56%
Z.ai
$145 Vol.
21%
Moonshot
$476 Vol.
19%
Baidu
$95 Vol.
3%
ByteDance
$115 Vol.
3%
MiniMax
$160 Vol.
3%
DeepSeek
$142 Vol.
3%
Meituan
$91 Vol.
3%
Tencent
$110 Vol.
3%
Xiaomi
$95 Vol.
2%
StepFun
$127 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank among primarily Chinese companies, based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Qualifying Chinese Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Alibaba’s recent full-stack AI announcements, including its Zhenwu V900 chip described as China’s most powerful and plans to train Qwen 4 with future models scaling to 5–10 trillion parameters, have positioned the company ahead in trader sentiment for the end-of-November resolution. The closely matched odds around 50 percent across multiple contenders reflect uncertainty over which lab will demonstrate superior large language model capabilities or market traction by then. Z.ai and Moonshot maintain mid-teen implied probabilities on the strength of their GLM and Kimi releases plus enterprise deployments, while regulatory scrutiny of DeepSeek and Moonshot over alleged data routing to U.S. models introduces downside risk for those names. DeepSeek’s efficient V4.1-Flash updates and open-weight momentum continue to support its niche, but Alibaba’s infrastructure scale and self-reliance push currently anchor the leading consensus.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank among primarily Chinese companies, based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Qualifying Chinese Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Qualifying Chinese Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Sep 17, 2026, 8:06 PM ET
Volume
$3,068End Date
Dec 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 8:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank among primarily Chinese companies, based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Qualifying Chinese Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Alibaba’s recent full-stack AI announcements, including its Zhenwu V900 chip described as China’s most powerful and plans to train Qwen 4 with future models scaling to 5–10 trillion parameters, have positioned the company ahead in trader sentiment for the end-of-November resolution. The closely matched odds around 50 percent across multiple contenders reflect uncertainty over which lab will demonstrate superior large language model capabilities or market traction by then. Z.ai and Moonshot maintain mid-teen implied probabilities on the strength of their GLM and Kimi releases plus enterprise deployments, while regulatory scrutiny of DeepSeek and Moonshot over alleged data routing to U.S. models introduces downside risk for those names. DeepSeek’s efficient V4.1-Flash updates and open-weight momentum continue to support its niche, but Alibaba’s infrastructure scale and self-reliance push currently anchor the leading consensus.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank among primarily Chinese companies, based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Qualifying Chinese Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Qualifying Chinese Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$3,068End Date
Dec 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 8:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Alibaba’s recent full-stack AI announcements, including its Zhenwu V900 chip described as China’s most powerful and plans to train Qwen 4 with future models scaling to 5–10 trillion parameters, have positioned the company ahead in trader sentiment for the end-of-November resolution. The closely matched odds around 50 percent across multiple contenders reflect uncertainty over which lab will demonstrate superior large language model capabilities or market traction by then. Z.ai and Moonshot maintain mid-teen implied probabilities on the strength of their GLM and Kimi releases plus enterprise deployments, while regulatory scrutiny of DeepSeek and Moonshot over alleged data routing to U.S. models introduces downside risk for those names. DeepSeek’s efficient V4.1-Flash updates and open-weight momentum continue to support its niche, but Alibaba’s infrastructure scale and self-reliance push currently anchor the leading consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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