Apple's decision to pause development of a true Vision Pro successor in favor of AI smart glasses has driven the strong 94.5% market-implied odds against a release before 2027. Bloomberg's Mark Gurman and supply-chain reports indicate the category remains on ice, with any lighter or cheaper follow-up now targeted for late 2028 or 2029 after an M5 chip refresh of the original headset in late 2025. Traders cite repeated timeline slips, weak sales traction for spatial computing hardware, and Apple's focus on wearable AI as primary factors. A surprise late-2026 announcement remains possible if priorities shift abruptly, though current verified developments make that highly improbable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated6% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
6% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's decision to pause development of a true Vision Pro successor in favor of AI smart glasses has driven the strong 94.5% market-implied odds against a release before 2027. Bloomberg's Mark Gurman and supply-chain reports indicate the category remains on ice, with any lighter or cheaper follow-up now targeted for late 2028 or 2029 after an M5 chip refresh of the original headset in late 2025. Traders cite repeated timeline slips, weak sales traction for spatial computing hardware, and Apple's focus on wearable AI as primary factors. A surprise late-2026 announcement remains possible if priorities shift abruptly, though current verified developments make that highly improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ET
Volume
$5,987End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's decision to pause development of a true Vision Pro successor in favor of AI smart glasses has driven the strong 94.5% market-implied odds against a release before 2027. Bloomberg's Mark Gurman and supply-chain reports indicate the category remains on ice, with any lighter or cheaper follow-up now targeted for late 2028 or 2029 after an M5 chip refresh of the original headset in late 2025. Traders cite repeated timeline slips, weak sales traction for spatial computing hardware, and Apple's focus on wearable AI as primary factors. A surprise late-2026 announcement remains possible if priorities shift abruptly, though current verified developments make that highly improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$5,987End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple's decision to pause development of a true Vision Pro successor in favor of AI smart glasses has driven the strong 94.5% market-implied odds against a release before 2027. Bloomberg's Mark Gurman and supply-chain reports indicate the category remains on ice, with any lighter or cheaper follow-up now targeted for late 2028 or 2029 after an M5 chip refresh of the original headset in late 2025. Traders cite repeated timeline slips, weak sales traction for spatial computing hardware, and Apple's focus on wearable AI as primary factors. A surprise late-2026 announcement remains possible if priorities shift abruptly, though current verified developments make that highly improbable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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