Redistricting under Alabama’s 2023 congressional map, upheld by the Supreme Court, shifted AL-02 to a Republican-leaning profile with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+7 by removing Democratic strongholds and aligning it more closely with statewide voting patterns. Incumbent Democrat Shomari Figures now faces Republican state Rep. Rhett Marques, who won the August 11 special primary with roughly 50 percent of the vote against multiple challengers. The Cook Political Report rates the November 3 general election as Likely Republican, reflecting the district’s altered demographics and historical voting behavior. Trader consensus prices the Republican outcome at 74 percent, consistent with these structural advantages heading into the general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAL-02 House Election Winner
AL-02 House Election Winner
$39,563 Vol.
$39,563 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
74%
Democratic Party
26%
$39,563 Vol.
$39,563 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$20,300 Vol.
74%
Democratic Party
$19,264 Vol.
26%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting under Alabama’s 2023 congressional map, upheld by the Supreme Court, shifted AL-02 to a Republican-leaning profile with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+7 by removing Democratic strongholds and aligning it more closely with statewide voting patterns. Incumbent Democrat Shomari Figures now faces Republican state Rep. Rhett Marques, who won the August 11 special primary with roughly 50 percent of the vote against multiple challengers. The Cook Political Report rates the November 3 general election as Likely Republican, reflecting the district’s altered demographics and historical voting behavior. Trader consensus prices the Republican outcome at 74 percent, consistent with these structural advantages heading into the general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volume
$39,563End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting under Alabama’s 2023 congressional map, upheld by the Supreme Court, shifted AL-02 to a Republican-leaning profile with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+7 by removing Democratic strongholds and aligning it more closely with statewide voting patterns. Incumbent Democrat Shomari Figures now faces Republican state Rep. Rhett Marques, who won the August 11 special primary with roughly 50 percent of the vote against multiple challengers. The Cook Political Report rates the November 3 general election as Likely Republican, reflecting the district’s altered demographics and historical voting behavior. Trader consensus prices the Republican outcome at 74 percent, consistent with these structural advantages heading into the general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$39,563End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Redistricting under Alabama’s 2023 congressional map, upheld by the Supreme Court, shifted AL-02 to a Republican-leaning profile with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+7 by removing Democratic strongholds and aligning it more closely with statewide voting patterns. Incumbent Democrat Shomari Figures now faces Republican state Rep. Rhett Marques, who won the August 11 special primary with roughly 50 percent of the vote against multiple challengers. The Cook Political Report rates the November 3 general election as Likely Republican, reflecting the district’s altered demographics and historical voting behavior. Trader consensus prices the Republican outcome at 74 percent, consistent with these structural advantages heading into the general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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