Recent hotter-than-expected August CPI data, with headline inflation holding at 3.4% year-over-year and core rising 0.3% month-over-month, combined with surging oil prices amid Middle East tensions, have driven markets to price in an approximately 90% probability of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike at the September 16 FOMC meeting. This has lifted the US Dollar Index (DXY) to the 99.5–99.6 range, supported by 10-year Treasury yields breaching 5% and widening interest rate differentials versus other major central banks. Traders are now focused on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s post-meeting guidance for signals on additional tightening, alongside upcoming releases such as retail sales and industrial production that could further shape rate path expectations and dollar volatility through the week.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
Sep 18, 2026
↑ 100.60
50%
↑ 100.40
98%
↑ 100.20
98%
↑ 100.00
98%
↑ 99.80
50%
↓ 99.20
50%
↓ 99.00
50%
↓ 98.80
50%
↓ 98.60
50%
↓ 98.40
50%
↓ 98.20
50%
↓ 98.00
98%
↓ 97.80
98%
$551 Vol.
↑ 100.60
$0 Vol.
50%
↑ 100.40
$61 Vol.
98%
↑ 100.20
$61 Vol.
98%
↑ 100.00
$61 Vol.
98%
↑ 99.80
$0 Vol.
50%
↓ 99.20
$0 Vol.
50%
↓ 99.00
$0 Vol.
50%
↓ 98.80
$0 Vol.
50%
↓ 98.60
$0 Vol.
50%
↓ 98.40
$0 Vol.
50%
↓ 98.20
$0 Vol.
50%
↓ 98.00
$61 Vol.
98%
↓ 97.80
$61 Vol.
98%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation and during the week of September 14 2026, any 1-minute candle for the US Dollar Index (DXY) has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Trading days will be determined according to the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth. Under the standard schedule (time zone America/New_York), trading is open continuously from 5:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with no daily settlement break, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours as listed on Pyth.
Under the standard New York 5:00 PM FX close convention, each trading day begins at 5:00:00 PM ET on the prior calendar day and ends at 5:00:00 PM ET on that calendar day. Under the standard schedule, the week of September 14 2026 consists of the Monday through Friday trading days beginning at 5:00:00 PM ET on the Sunday immediately preceding September 14 2026 and ending at 5:00:00 PM ET on the following Friday.
Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
If the US Dollar Index (DXY) does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to "No".
In the event of an index methodology change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth.
The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the US Dollar Index (DXY) "High" and "Low" prices available at https://app.pyth.com/explore/FX.USDXY, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles.
Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.
If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high and low prices published by ICE Futures U.S. for the most actively traded (by open interest) ICE U.S. Dollar Index futures contract (ticker DX) as of the relevant business day may be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session. Official daily high and low prices are the values shown in the "High" and "Low" columns of the ICE Futures U.S. "Futures Daily Market Report for US Dollar Index" for the relevant contract month on each relevant trading day. This report may be accessed by selecting "End of Day Report" under the "Reports" tab of the product page at https://www.ice.com/products/194/US-Dollar-Index-Futures.Recent hotter-than-expected August CPI data, with headline inflation holding at 3.4% year-over-year and core rising 0.3% month-over-month, combined with surging oil prices amid Middle East tensions, have driven markets to price in an approximately 90% probability of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike at the September 16 FOMC meeting. This has lifted the US Dollar Index (DXY) to the 99.5–99.6 range, supported by 10-year Treasury yields breaching 5% and widening interest rate differentials versus other major central banks. Traders are now focused on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s post-meeting guidance for signals on additional tightening, alongside upcoming releases such as retail sales and industrial production that could further shape rate path expectations and dollar volatility through the week.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation and during the week of September 14 2026, any 1-minute candle for the US Dollar Index (DXY) has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Trading days will be determined according to the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth. Under the standard schedule (time zone America/New_York), trading is open continuously from 5:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with no daily settlement break, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours as listed on Pyth.
Under the standard New York 5:00 PM FX close convention, each trading day begins at 5:00:00 PM ET on the prior calendar day and ends at 5:00:00 PM ET on that calendar day. Under the standard schedule, the week of September 14 2026 consists of the Monday through Friday trading days beginning at 5:00:00 PM ET on the Sunday immediately preceding September 14 2026 and ending at 5:00:00 PM ET on the following Friday.
Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
If the US Dollar Index (DXY) does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to "No".
In the event of an index methodology change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth.
The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the US Dollar Index (DXY) "High" and "Low" prices available at https://app.pyth.com/explore/FX.USDXY, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles.
Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.
If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high and low prices published by ICE Futures U.S. for the most actively traded (by open interest) ICE U.S. Dollar Index futures contract (ticker DX) as of the relevant business day may be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session. Official daily high and low prices are the values shown in the "High" and "Low" columns of the ICE Futures U.S. "Futures Daily Market Report for US Dollar Index" for the relevant contract month on each relevant trading day. This report may be accessed by selecting "End of Day Report" under the "Reports" tab of the product page at https://www.ice.com/products/194/US-Dollar-Index-Futures.
Trading days will be determined according to the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth. Under the standard schedule (time zone America/New_York), trading is open continuously from 5:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with no daily settlement break, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours as listed on Pyth.
Under the standard New York 5:00 PM FX close convention, each trading day begins at 5:00:00 PM ET on the prior calendar day and ends at 5:00:00 PM ET on that calendar day. Under the standard schedule, the week of September 14 2026 consists of the Monday through Friday trading days beginning at 5:00:00 PM ET on the Sunday immediately preceding September 14 2026 and ending at 5:00:00 PM ET on the following Friday.
Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
If the US Dollar Index (DXY) does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to "No".
In the event of an index methodology change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth.
The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the US Dollar Index (DXY) "High" and "Low" prices available at https://app.pyth.com/explore/FX.USDXY, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles.
Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.
If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high and low prices published by ICE Futures U.S. for the most actively traded (by open interest) ICE U.S. Dollar Index futures contract (ticker DX) as of the relevant business day may be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session. Official daily high and low prices are the values shown in the "High" and "Low" columns of the ICE Futures U.S. "Futures Daily Market Report for US Dollar Index" for the relevant contract month on each relevant trading day. This report may be accessed by selecting "End of Day Report" under the "Reports" tab of the product page at https://www.ice.com/products/194/US-Dollar-Index-Futures.
Market Opened: Sep 14, 2026, 12:40 PM ET
Volume
$551End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 12:40 PM ETResolution Source
https://app.pyth.com/explore/FX.USDXYResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation and during the week of September 14 2026, any 1-minute candle for the US Dollar Index (DXY) has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Trading days will be determined according to the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth. Under the standard schedule (time zone America/New_York), trading is open continuously from 5:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with no daily settlement break, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours as listed on Pyth.
Under the standard New York 5:00 PM FX close convention, each trading day begins at 5:00:00 PM ET on the prior calendar day and ends at 5:00:00 PM ET on that calendar day. Under the standard schedule, the week of September 14 2026 consists of the Monday through Friday trading days beginning at 5:00:00 PM ET on the Sunday immediately preceding September 14 2026 and ending at 5:00:00 PM ET on the following Friday.
Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
If the US Dollar Index (DXY) does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to "No".
In the event of an index methodology change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth.
The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the US Dollar Index (DXY) "High" and "Low" prices available at https://app.pyth.com/explore/FX.USDXY, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles.
Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.
If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high and low prices published by ICE Futures U.S. for the most actively traded (by open interest) ICE U.S. Dollar Index futures contract (ticker DX) as of the relevant business day may be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session. Official daily high and low prices are the values shown in the "High" and "Low" columns of the ICE Futures U.S. "Futures Daily Market Report for US Dollar Index" for the relevant contract month on each relevant trading day. This report may be accessed by selecting "End of Day Report" under the "Reports" tab of the product page at https://www.ice.com/products/194/US-Dollar-Index-Futures.Recent hotter-than-expected August CPI data, with headline inflation holding at 3.4% year-over-year and core rising 0.3% month-over-month, combined with surging oil prices amid Middle East tensions, have driven markets to price in an approximately 90% probability of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike at the September 16 FOMC meeting. This has lifted the US Dollar Index (DXY) to the 99.5–99.6 range, supported by 10-year Treasury yields breaching 5% and widening interest rate differentials versus other major central banks. Traders are now focused on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s post-meeting guidance for signals on additional tightening, alongside upcoming releases such as retail sales and industrial production that could further shape rate path expectations and dollar volatility through the week.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation and during the week of September 14 2026, any 1-minute candle for the US Dollar Index (DXY) has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Trading days will be determined according to the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth. Under the standard schedule (time zone America/New_York), trading is open continuously from 5:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with no daily settlement break, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours as listed on Pyth.
Under the standard New York 5:00 PM FX close convention, each trading day begins at 5:00:00 PM ET on the prior calendar day and ends at 5:00:00 PM ET on that calendar day. Under the standard schedule, the week of September 14 2026 consists of the Monday through Friday trading days beginning at 5:00:00 PM ET on the Sunday immediately preceding September 14 2026 and ending at 5:00:00 PM ET on the following Friday.
Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
If the US Dollar Index (DXY) does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to "No".
In the event of an index methodology change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth.
The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the US Dollar Index (DXY) "High" and "Low" prices available at https://app.pyth.com/explore/FX.USDXY, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles.
Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.
If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high and low prices published by ICE Futures U.S. for the most actively traded (by open interest) ICE U.S. Dollar Index futures contract (ticker DX) as of the relevant business day may be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session. Official daily high and low prices are the values shown in the "High" and "Low" columns of the ICE Futures U.S. "Futures Daily Market Report for US Dollar Index" for the relevant contract month on each relevant trading day. This report may be accessed by selecting "End of Day Report" under the "Reports" tab of the product page at https://www.ice.com/products/194/US-Dollar-Index-Futures.
Trading days will be determined according to the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth. Under the standard schedule (time zone America/New_York), trading is open continuously from 5:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with no daily settlement break, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours as listed on Pyth.
Under the standard New York 5:00 PM FX close convention, each trading day begins at 5:00:00 PM ET on the prior calendar day and ends at 5:00:00 PM ET on that calendar day. Under the standard schedule, the week of September 14 2026 consists of the Monday through Friday trading days beginning at 5:00:00 PM ET on the Sunday immediately preceding September 14 2026 and ending at 5:00:00 PM ET on the following Friday.
Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
If the US Dollar Index (DXY) does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to "No".
In the event of an index methodology change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth.
The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the US Dollar Index (DXY) "High" and "Low" prices available at https://app.pyth.com/explore/FX.USDXY, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles.
Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.
If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high and low prices published by ICE Futures U.S. for the most actively traded (by open interest) ICE U.S. Dollar Index futures contract (ticker DX) as of the relevant business day may be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session. Official daily high and low prices are the values shown in the "High" and "Low" columns of the ICE Futures U.S. "Futures Daily Market Report for US Dollar Index" for the relevant contract month on each relevant trading day. This report may be accessed by selecting "End of Day Report" under the "Reports" tab of the product page at https://www.ice.com/products/194/US-Dollar-Index-Futures.
Volume
$551End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 12:40 PM ETResolution Source
https://app.pyth.com/explore/FX.USDXYResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent hotter-than-expected August CPI data, with headline inflation holding at 3.4% year-over-year and core rising 0.3% month-over-month, combined with surging oil prices amid Middle East tensions, have driven markets to price in an approximately 90% probability of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike at the September 16 FOMC meeting. This has lifted the US Dollar Index (DXY) to the 99.5–99.6 range, supported by 10-year Treasury yields breaching 5% and widening interest rate differentials versus other major central banks. Traders are now focused on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s post-meeting guidance for signals on additional tightening, alongside upcoming releases such as retail sales and industrial production that could further shape rate path expectations and dollar volatility through the week.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions