Anthropic's confidential S-1 filing on June 1, 2026, combined with recent reporting that OpenAI is leaning toward a 2027 IPO, has driven trader consensus toward Anthropic at 86.5% implied probability. Both artificial intelligence labs submitted draft registration statements this spring and hold valuations above $850 billion, with Anthropic recently reaching a $965 billion post-money mark and stronger reported revenue run rates. OpenAI's statements emphasize flexibility to remain private longer for strategic reasons, creating market-implied odds that favor Anthropic completing its listing first in late 2026. Key upcoming catalysts include any public S-1 releases or earnings updates that could shift timelines for either large language model developer.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic
87% chance
$283,929 Vol.
$283,929 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
Anthropic
87% chance
$283,929 Vol.
$283,929 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic's confidential S-1 filing on June 1, 2026, combined with recent reporting that OpenAI is leaning toward a 2027 IPO, has driven trader consensus toward Anthropic at 86.5% implied probability. Both artificial intelligence labs submitted draft registration statements this spring and hold valuations above $850 billion, with Anthropic recently reaching a $965 billion post-money mark and stronger reported revenue run rates. OpenAI's statements emphasize flexibility to remain private longer for strategic reasons, creating market-implied odds that favor Anthropic completing its listing first in late 2026. Key upcoming catalysts include any public S-1 releases or earnings updates that could shift timelines for either large language model developer.
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ET
Volume
$283,929End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic's confidential S-1 filing on June 1, 2026, combined with recent reporting that OpenAI is leaning toward a 2027 IPO, has driven trader consensus toward Anthropic at 86.5% implied probability. Both artificial intelligence labs submitted draft registration statements this spring and hold valuations above $850 billion, with Anthropic recently reaching a $965 billion post-money mark and stronger reported revenue run rates. OpenAI's statements emphasize flexibility to remain private longer for strategic reasons, creating market-implied odds that favor Anthropic completing its listing first in late 2026. Key upcoming catalysts include any public S-1 releases or earnings updates that could shift timelines for either large language model developer.
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$283,929End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Anthropic's confidential S-1 filing on June 1, 2026, combined with recent reporting that OpenAI is leaning toward a 2027 IPO, has driven trader consensus toward Anthropic at 86.5% implied probability. Both artificial intelligence labs submitted draft registration statements this spring and hold valuations above $850 billion, with Anthropic recently reaching a $965 billion post-money mark and stronger reported revenue run rates. OpenAI's statements emphasize flexibility to remain private longer for strategic reasons, creating market-implied odds that favor Anthropic completing its listing first in late 2026. Key upcoming catalysts include any public S-1 releases or earnings updates that could shift timelines for either large language model developer.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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