The ICJ case brought by South Africa against Israel remains in its written pleadings phase, with the court’s May 2026 order setting South Africa’s reply deadline for November 2027 and Israel’s rejoinder for May 2029. This timeline makes a final judgment on the merits—including any finding of genocide—unlikely before late 2028 at the earliest. Parallel ICC proceedings involve arrest warrants for Israeli officials on other charges but have not advanced to genocide convictions. Multiple states have filed interventions on both sides, yet the procedural extensions and high evidentiary threshold for proving genocidal intent under the 1948 Convention continue to shape trader expectations that no such ruling will occur by the end of 2027.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated10% chance
$99,162 Vol.
$99,162 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
10% chance
$99,162 Vol.
$99,162 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if he International Criminal Court ("ICC"), the International Court of Justice ("ICJ"), or any ad hoc international tribunal with recognized legal standing, issues a judgment or conviction finding that either the State of Israel or any current or former Israeli official committed genocide or acts of genocide by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof.
A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal.
Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market.
The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The ICJ case brought by South Africa against Israel remains in its written pleadings phase, with the court’s May 2026 order setting South Africa’s reply deadline for November 2027 and Israel’s rejoinder for May 2029. This timeline makes a final judgment on the merits—including any finding of genocide—unlikely before late 2028 at the earliest. Parallel ICC proceedings involve arrest warrants for Israeli officials on other charges but have not advanced to genocide convictions. Multiple states have filed interventions on both sides, yet the procedural extensions and high evidentiary threshold for proving genocidal intent under the 1948 Convention continue to shape trader expectations that no such ruling will occur by the end of 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if he International Criminal Court ("ICC"), the International Court of Justice ("ICJ"), or any ad hoc international tribunal with recognized legal standing, issues a judgment or conviction finding that either the State of Israel or any current or former Israeli official committed genocide or acts of genocide by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof.
A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal.
Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market.
The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof.
A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal.
Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market.
The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Jun 29, 2026, 3:31 PM ET
Volume
$99,162End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Jun 29, 2026, 3:31 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if he International Criminal Court ("ICC"), the International Court of Justice ("ICJ"), or any ad hoc international tribunal with recognized legal standing, issues a judgment or conviction finding that either the State of Israel or any current or former Israeli official committed genocide or acts of genocide by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof.
A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal.
Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market.
The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The ICJ case brought by South Africa against Israel remains in its written pleadings phase, with the court’s May 2026 order setting South Africa’s reply deadline for November 2027 and Israel’s rejoinder for May 2029. This timeline makes a final judgment on the merits—including any finding of genocide—unlikely before late 2028 at the earliest. Parallel ICC proceedings involve arrest warrants for Israeli officials on other charges but have not advanced to genocide convictions. Multiple states have filed interventions on both sides, yet the procedural extensions and high evidentiary threshold for proving genocidal intent under the 1948 Convention continue to shape trader expectations that no such ruling will occur by the end of 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if he International Criminal Court ("ICC"), the International Court of Justice ("ICJ"), or any ad hoc international tribunal with recognized legal standing, issues a judgment or conviction finding that either the State of Israel or any current or former Israeli official committed genocide or acts of genocide by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof.
A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal.
Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market.
The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof.
A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal.
Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market.
The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$99,162End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Jun 29, 2026, 3:31 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The ICJ case brought by South Africa against Israel remains in its written pleadings phase, with the court’s May 2026 order setting South Africa’s reply deadline for November 2027 and Israel’s rejoinder for May 2029. This timeline makes a final judgment on the merits—including any finding of genocide—unlikely before late 2028 at the earliest. Parallel ICC proceedings involve arrest warrants for Israeli officials on other charges but have not advanced to genocide convictions. Multiple states have filed interventions on both sides, yet the procedural extensions and high evidentiary threshold for proving genocidal intent under the 1948 Convention continue to shape trader expectations that no such ruling will occur by the end of 2027.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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