**Traders assign a 96.9% probability to no new country joining the Abraham Accords by August 31, 2026, reflecting the absence of active, near-term diplomatic processes capable of producing a formal accession in the remaining days.** The most recent expansion occurred with Kazakhstan’s announcement and formalization in late 2025 and early 2026; Somaliland pledged to join following Israel’s December 2025 recognition but has not completed accession. Ongoing discussions with Saudi Arabia remain stalled over Palestinian statehood requirements, while Syria faces persistent bilateral tensions and military frictions despite earlier signals of interest. Other potential candidates, such as Azerbaijan or additional Central Asian states, involve largely symbolic steps that have not advanced to signing stage. Diplomatic normalization agreements typically require preparatory negotiations, public announcements, and formal ceremonies that exceed the short window before the resolution date. Realistic scenarios that could still shift the outcome include an unexpected last-minute announcement tied to U.S. or Israeli diplomatic initiatives, rapid formalization by Somaliland, or a breakthrough with a country already maintaining de facto ties with Israel. Such developments remain low-probability given current reporting on stalled or early-stage talks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated3% chance
$53,711 Vol.
$53,711 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
3% chance
$53,711 Vol.
$53,711 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.**Traders assign a 96.9% probability to no new country joining the Abraham Accords by August 31, 2026, reflecting the absence of active, near-term diplomatic processes capable of producing a formal accession in the remaining days.**
The most recent expansion occurred with Kazakhstan’s announcement and formalization in late 2025 and early 2026; Somaliland pledged to join following Israel’s December 2025 recognition but has not completed accession. Ongoing discussions with Saudi Arabia remain stalled over Palestinian statehood requirements, while Syria faces persistent bilateral tensions and military frictions despite earlier signals of interest. Other potential candidates, such as Azerbaijan or additional Central Asian states, involve largely symbolic steps that have not advanced to signing stage. Diplomatic normalization agreements typically require preparatory negotiations, public announcements, and formal ceremonies that exceed the short window before the resolution date.
Realistic scenarios that could still shift the outcome include an unexpected last-minute announcement tied to U.S. or Israeli diplomatic initiatives, rapid formalization by Somaliland, or a breakthrough with a country already maintaining de facto ties with Israel. Such developments remain low-probability given current reporting on stalled or early-stage talks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 31, 2026, 2:10 PM ET
Volume
$53,711End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 2:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.**Traders assign a 96.9% probability to no new country joining the Abraham Accords by August 31, 2026, reflecting the absence of active, near-term diplomatic processes capable of producing a formal accession in the remaining days.**
The most recent expansion occurred with Kazakhstan’s announcement and formalization in late 2025 and early 2026; Somaliland pledged to join following Israel’s December 2025 recognition but has not completed accession. Ongoing discussions with Saudi Arabia remain stalled over Palestinian statehood requirements, while Syria faces persistent bilateral tensions and military frictions despite earlier signals of interest. Other potential candidates, such as Azerbaijan or additional Central Asian states, involve largely symbolic steps that have not advanced to signing stage. Diplomatic normalization agreements typically require preparatory negotiations, public announcements, and formal ceremonies that exceed the short window before the resolution date.
Realistic scenarios that could still shift the outcome include an unexpected last-minute announcement tied to U.S. or Israeli diplomatic initiatives, rapid formalization by Somaliland, or a breakthrough with a country already maintaining de facto ties with Israel. Such developments remain low-probability given current reporting on stalled or early-stage talks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$53,711End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 2:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Traders assign a 96.9% probability to no new country joining the Abraham Accords by August 31, 2026, reflecting the absence of active, near-term diplomatic processes capable of producing a formal accession in the remaining days.** The most recent expansion occurred with Kazakhstan’s announcement and formalization in late 2025 and early 2026; Somaliland pledged to join following Israel’s December 2025 recognition but has not completed accession. Ongoing discussions with Saudi Arabia remain stalled over Palestinian statehood requirements, while Syria faces persistent bilateral tensions and military frictions despite earlier signals of interest. Other potential candidates, such as Azerbaijan or additional Central Asian states, involve largely symbolic steps that have not advanced to signing stage. Diplomatic normalization agreements typically require preparatory negotiations, public announcements, and formal ceremonies that exceed the short window before the resolution date. Realistic scenarios that could still shift the outcome include an unexpected last-minute announcement tied to U.S. or Israeli diplomatic initiatives, rapid formalization by Somaliland, or a breakthrough with a country already maintaining de facto ties with Israel. Such developments remain low-probability given current reporting on stalled or early-stage talks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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