**One Nation leads trader expectations for third place in the November 28, 2026 Victorian Legislative Assembly election, reflecting its sustained primary-vote strength in the low-to-mid 20s across recent polls.** Multiple August surveys (Resolve, DemosAU, Roy Morgan) place the Coalition and Labor narrowly ahead on primary votes, with One Nation third or close behind, drawing support especially in rural, provincial, and outer-metropolitan electorates. This positioning, combined with preferential voting dynamics and projections of One Nation capturing multiple seats from Labor and the Coalition, underpins the elevated implied probability. Leadership transitions in late July—Ben Carroll replacing Jacinta Allan as Labor Premier and Warren Pickering taking over One Nation—have not materially altered the minor-party surge, as One Nation has held its vote share while the majors remain competitive but fragmented. The Greens trail at double-digit primaries but face steeper barriers to matching One Nation’s projected seat haul, keeping their odds lower. Smaller parties and independents show limited polling traction and structural disadvantages in seat conversion under the current system. With roughly three months until polling day, further shifts in preference flows or regional swings could still adjust final rankings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedVictoria Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place
Victoria Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place
One Nation 61%
Greens 17.2%
Labor 7.2%
Legalise Cannabis <1%
$17,015 Vol.
$17,015 Vol.
Nov 28, 2026
One Nation
61%
Greens
17%
Labor
7%
Legalise Cannabis
<1%
Liberal–National
<1%
Animal Justice
<1%
Libertarian
<1%
Shooters, Fishers, Farmers
<1%
One Nation 61%
Greens 17.2%
Labor 7.2%
Legalise Cannabis <1%
$17,015 Vol.
$17,015 Vol.
Nov 28, 2026
One Nation
$5,818 Vol.
61%
Greens
$163 Vol.
17%
Labor
$6,387 Vol.
7%
Legalise Cannabis
$1,123 Vol.
<1%
Liberal–National
$1,073 Vol.
<1%
Animal Justice
$822 Vol.
<1%
Libertarian
$717 Vol.
<1%
Shooters, Fishers, Farmers
$914 Vol.
<1%
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).**One Nation leads trader expectations for third place in the November 28, 2026 Victorian Legislative Assembly election, reflecting its sustained primary-vote strength in the low-to-mid 20s across recent polls.** Multiple August surveys (Resolve, DemosAU, Roy Morgan) place the Coalition and Labor narrowly ahead on primary votes, with One Nation third or close behind, drawing support especially in rural, provincial, and outer-metropolitan electorates. This positioning, combined with preferential voting dynamics and projections of One Nation capturing multiple seats from Labor and the Coalition, underpins the elevated implied probability.
Leadership transitions in late July—Ben Carroll replacing Jacinta Allan as Labor Premier and Warren Pickering taking over One Nation—have not materially altered the minor-party surge, as One Nation has held its vote share while the majors remain competitive but fragmented. The Greens trail at double-digit primaries but face steeper barriers to matching One Nation’s projected seat haul, keeping their odds lower. Smaller parties and independents show limited polling traction and structural disadvantages in seat conversion under the current system. With roughly three months until polling day, further shifts in preference flows or regional swings could still adjust final rankings.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ET
Volume
$17,015End Date
Nov 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).**One Nation leads trader expectations for third place in the November 28, 2026 Victorian Legislative Assembly election, reflecting its sustained primary-vote strength in the low-to-mid 20s across recent polls.** Multiple August surveys (Resolve, DemosAU, Roy Morgan) place the Coalition and Labor narrowly ahead on primary votes, with One Nation third or close behind, drawing support especially in rural, provincial, and outer-metropolitan electorates. This positioning, combined with preferential voting dynamics and projections of One Nation capturing multiple seats from Labor and the Coalition, underpins the elevated implied probability.
Leadership transitions in late July—Ben Carroll replacing Jacinta Allan as Labor Premier and Warren Pickering taking over One Nation—have not materially altered the minor-party surge, as One Nation has held its vote share while the majors remain competitive but fragmented. The Greens trail at double-digit primaries but face steeper barriers to matching One Nation’s projected seat haul, keeping their odds lower. Smaller parties and independents show limited polling traction and structural disadvantages in seat conversion under the current system. With roughly three months until polling day, further shifts in preference flows or regional swings could still adjust final rankings.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
Volume
$17,015End Date
Nov 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**One Nation leads trader expectations for third place in the November 28, 2026 Victorian Legislative Assembly election, reflecting its sustained primary-vote strength in the low-to-mid 20s across recent polls.** Multiple August surveys (Resolve, DemosAU, Roy Morgan) place the Coalition and Labor narrowly ahead on primary votes, with One Nation third or close behind, drawing support especially in rural, provincial, and outer-metropolitan electorates. This positioning, combined with preferential voting dynamics and projections of One Nation capturing multiple seats from Labor and the Coalition, underpins the elevated implied probability. Leadership transitions in late July—Ben Carroll replacing Jacinta Allan as Labor Premier and Warren Pickering taking over One Nation—have not materially altered the minor-party surge, as One Nation has held its vote share while the majors remain competitive but fragmented. The Greens trail at double-digit primaries but face steeper barriers to matching One Nation’s projected seat haul, keeping their odds lower. Smaller parties and independents show limited polling traction and structural disadvantages in seat conversion under the current system. With roughly three months until polling day, further shifts in preference flows or regional swings could still adjust final rankings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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