Labor leads trader pricing for second place at the November 28 Victorian state election, consistent with recent polls showing the Liberal–National Coalition ahead on two-party preferred margins of 51–57 while One Nation’s primary vote fragments the right. Ben Carroll’s July leadership replacement of Jacinta Allan produced no sustained Labor recovery, with primary support remaining in the mid-20s across Resolve, DemosAU, Roy Morgan and RedBridge surveys. The Coalition’s positioning under Jess Wilson, combined with historical preference flows that limit One Nation’s lower-house seat gains, underpins the current implied probabilities. Upcoming campaign events through early November could still shift primary vote shares among the three main contenders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLabor 79%
Liberal–National 14.4%
One Nation 5.2%
Greens <1%
NEW
NEW
Nov 28, 2026
Labor
79%
Liberal–National
14%
One Nation
5%
Greens
1%
Labor 79%
Liberal–National 14.4%
One Nation 5.2%
Greens <1%
NEW
NEW
Nov 28, 2026
Labor
$948 Vol.
79%
Liberal–National
$273 Vol.
14%
One Nation
$410 Vol.
5%
Greens
$208 Vol.
1%
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the second-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).Labor leads trader pricing for second place at the November 28 Victorian state election, consistent with recent polls showing the Liberal–National Coalition ahead on two-party preferred margins of 51–57 while One Nation’s primary vote fragments the right. Ben Carroll’s July leadership replacement of Jacinta Allan produced no sustained Labor recovery, with primary support remaining in the mid-20s across Resolve, DemosAU, Roy Morgan and RedBridge surveys. The Coalition’s positioning under Jess Wilson, combined with historical preference flows that limit One Nation’s lower-house seat gains, underpins the current implied probabilities. Upcoming campaign events through early November could still shift primary vote shares among the three main contenders.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the second-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the second-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ET
Volume
$1,839End Date
Nov 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the second-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).Labor leads trader pricing for second place at the November 28 Victorian state election, consistent with recent polls showing the Liberal–National Coalition ahead on two-party preferred margins of 51–57 while One Nation’s primary vote fragments the right. Ben Carroll’s July leadership replacement of Jacinta Allan produced no sustained Labor recovery, with primary support remaining in the mid-20s across Resolve, DemosAU, Roy Morgan and RedBridge surveys. The Coalition’s positioning under Jess Wilson, combined with historical preference flows that limit One Nation’s lower-house seat gains, underpins the current implied probabilities. Upcoming campaign events through early November could still shift primary vote shares among the three main contenders.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the second-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the second-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
Volume
$1,839End Date
Nov 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Labor leads trader pricing for second place at the November 28 Victorian state election, consistent with recent polls showing the Liberal–National Coalition ahead on two-party preferred margins of 51–57 while One Nation’s primary vote fragments the right. Ben Carroll’s July leadership replacement of Jacinta Allan produced no sustained Labor recovery, with primary support remaining in the mid-20s across Resolve, DemosAU, Roy Morgan and RedBridge surveys. The Coalition’s positioning under Jess Wilson, combined with historical preference flows that limit One Nation’s lower-house seat gains, underpins the current implied probabilities. Upcoming campaign events through early November could still shift primary vote shares among the three main contenders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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