One Nation’s momentum after the 2025 federal election and its Farrer by-election win has kept defection talk alive inside the Coalition, producing the current 65 percent trader consensus. Barnaby Joyce’s December 2025 switch from the Nationals established a recent precedent for lower-house members crossing to the party. In May 2026 Nationals MP Colin Boyce publicly floated the possibility after the Coalition’s primary vote collapsed in Farrer, although he later ruled out a move. Persistent Coalition primary weakness, One Nation’s stronger polling in several states, and internal friction over policy direction continue to sustain speculation that at least one additional sitting MP could switch before year-end, even as no confirmed announcement has occurred since Joyce.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill another sitting Australian MP join One Nation in 2026?
Will another sitting Australian MP join One Nation in 2026?
0% chance
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Dec 31, 2026
0% chance
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Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Australian House of Representatives announces that he or she will join Pauline Hanson’s One Nation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement that the individual will transition from independent status or another political party to One Nation will qualify only if the individual is a sitting MP in the Australian House of Representatives at the time of the announcement.
This market will resolve based on a qualifying announcement made within the specified timeframe. Once such an announcement is made, whether or when the individual subsequently joins One Nation will not affect the market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant MP or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.One Nation’s momentum after the 2025 federal election and its Farrer by-election win has kept defection talk alive inside the Coalition, producing the current 65 percent trader consensus. Barnaby Joyce’s December 2025 switch from the Nationals established a recent precedent for lower-house members crossing to the party. In May 2026 Nationals MP Colin Boyce publicly floated the possibility after the Coalition’s primary vote collapsed in Farrer, although he later ruled out a move. Persistent Coalition primary weakness, One Nation’s stronger polling in several states, and internal friction over policy direction continue to sustain speculation that at least one additional sitting MP could switch before year-end, even as no confirmed announcement has occurred since Joyce.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Australian House of Representatives announces that he or she will join Pauline Hanson’s One Nation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement that the individual will transition from independent status or another political party to One Nation will qualify only if the individual is a sitting MP in the Australian House of Representatives at the time of the announcement.
This market will resolve based on a qualifying announcement made within the specified timeframe. Once such an announcement is made, whether or when the individual subsequently joins One Nation will not affect the market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant MP or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement that the individual will transition from independent status or another political party to One Nation will qualify only if the individual is a sitting MP in the Australian House of Representatives at the time of the announcement.
This market will resolve based on a qualifying announcement made within the specified timeframe. Once such an announcement is made, whether or when the individual subsequently joins One Nation will not affect the market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant MP or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jun 23, 2026, 9:38 PM ET
Volume
$172End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jun 23, 2026, 9:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Australian House of Representatives announces that he or she will join Pauline Hanson’s One Nation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement that the individual will transition from independent status or another political party to One Nation will qualify only if the individual is a sitting MP in the Australian House of Representatives at the time of the announcement.
This market will resolve based on a qualifying announcement made within the specified timeframe. Once such an announcement is made, whether or when the individual subsequently joins One Nation will not affect the market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant MP or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.One Nation’s momentum after the 2025 federal election and its Farrer by-election win has kept defection talk alive inside the Coalition, producing the current 65 percent trader consensus. Barnaby Joyce’s December 2025 switch from the Nationals established a recent precedent for lower-house members crossing to the party. In May 2026 Nationals MP Colin Boyce publicly floated the possibility after the Coalition’s primary vote collapsed in Farrer, although he later ruled out a move. Persistent Coalition primary weakness, One Nation’s stronger polling in several states, and internal friction over policy direction continue to sustain speculation that at least one additional sitting MP could switch before year-end, even as no confirmed announcement has occurred since Joyce.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Australian House of Representatives announces that he or she will join Pauline Hanson’s One Nation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement that the individual will transition from independent status or another political party to One Nation will qualify only if the individual is a sitting MP in the Australian House of Representatives at the time of the announcement.
This market will resolve based on a qualifying announcement made within the specified timeframe. Once such an announcement is made, whether or when the individual subsequently joins One Nation will not affect the market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant MP or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement that the individual will transition from independent status or another political party to One Nation will qualify only if the individual is a sitting MP in the Australian House of Representatives at the time of the announcement.
This market will resolve based on a qualifying announcement made within the specified timeframe. Once such an announcement is made, whether or when the individual subsequently joins One Nation will not affect the market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant MP or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$172End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jun 23, 2026, 9:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...One Nation’s momentum after the 2025 federal election and its Farrer by-election win has kept defection talk alive inside the Coalition, producing the current 65 percent trader consensus. Barnaby Joyce’s December 2025 switch from the Nationals established a recent precedent for lower-house members crossing to the party. In May 2026 Nationals MP Colin Boyce publicly floated the possibility after the Coalition’s primary vote collapsed in Farrer, although he later ruled out a move. Persistent Coalition primary weakness, One Nation’s stronger polling in several states, and internal friction over policy direction continue to sustain speculation that at least one additional sitting MP could switch before year-end, even as no confirmed announcement has occurred since Joyce.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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