SpaceX's post-IPO share price trajectory, currently around $146 and implying a roughly $1.93 trillion market capitalization as of mid-August 2026, forms the core driver of trader sentiment for the end-of-August resolution. After pricing at $135 per share in the June offering that valued the company near $1.77 trillion, the stock briefly exceeded $2 trillion before moderating amid broader market conditions and revenue of $18.7 billion in 2025. Market-implied odds favor the $1.75–2.00 trillion bin at 58.5 percent, reflecting real-money positioning around recent trading levels rather than aggressive moves higher or lower in the remaining two weeks. Key near-term influences include ongoing Starlink subscriber growth and any volatility in equity benchmarks or Treasury yields that could affect risk appetite for high-growth aerospace names.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$1.75-$2.00T 61%
$2.25T+ 37%
<$1.00T 36%
$1.00-$1.25T 36%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
<$1.00T
36%
$1.00-$1.25T
36%
$1.25-$1.50T
35%
$1.50-$1.75T
18%
$1.75-$2.00T
61%
$2.00-$2.25T
36%
$2.25T+
37%
$1.75-$2.00T 61%
$2.25T+ 37%
<$1.00T 36%
$1.00-$1.25T 36%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
<$1.00T
$0 Vol.
36%
$1.00-$1.25T
$0 Vol.
36%
$1.25-$1.50T
$0 Vol.
35%
$1.50-$1.75T
$1,669 Vol.
18%
$1.75-$2.00T
$0 Vol.
61%
$2.00-$2.25T
$0 Vol.
36%
$2.25T+
$0 Vol.
37%
This market will resolve according to Space Exploration Technologies' public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of the specified month.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.SpaceX's post-IPO share price trajectory, currently around $146 and implying a roughly $1.93 trillion market capitalization as of mid-August 2026, forms the core driver of trader sentiment for the end-of-August resolution. After pricing at $135 per share in the June offering that valued the company near $1.77 trillion, the stock briefly exceeded $2 trillion before moderating amid broader market conditions and revenue of $18.7 billion in 2025. Market-implied odds favor the $1.75–2.00 trillion bin at 58.5 percent, reflecting real-money positioning around recent trading levels rather than aggressive moves higher or lower in the remaining two weeks. Key near-term influences include ongoing Starlink subscriber growth and any volatility in equity benchmarks or Treasury yields that could affect risk appetite for high-growth aerospace names.
This market will resolve according to Space Exploration Technologies' public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of the specified month.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
Market Opened: Aug 4, 2026, 8:25 PM ET
Volume
$1,669End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 4, 2026, 8:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Space Exploration Technologies' public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of the specified month.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.SpaceX's post-IPO share price trajectory, currently around $146 and implying a roughly $1.93 trillion market capitalization as of mid-August 2026, forms the core driver of trader sentiment for the end-of-August resolution. After pricing at $135 per share in the June offering that valued the company near $1.77 trillion, the stock briefly exceeded $2 trillion before moderating amid broader market conditions and revenue of $18.7 billion in 2025. Market-implied odds favor the $1.75–2.00 trillion bin at 58.5 percent, reflecting real-money positioning around recent trading levels rather than aggressive moves higher or lower in the remaining two weeks. Key near-term influences include ongoing Starlink subscriber growth and any volatility in equity benchmarks or Treasury yields that could affect risk appetite for high-growth aerospace names.
This market will resolve according to Space Exploration Technologies' public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of the specified month.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
Volume
$1,669End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 4, 2026, 8:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...SpaceX's post-IPO share price trajectory, currently around $146 and implying a roughly $1.93 trillion market capitalization as of mid-August 2026, forms the core driver of trader sentiment for the end-of-August resolution. After pricing at $135 per share in the June offering that valued the company near $1.77 trillion, the stock briefly exceeded $2 trillion before moderating amid broader market conditions and revenue of $18.7 billion in 2025. Market-implied odds favor the $1.75–2.00 trillion bin at 58.5 percent, reflecting real-money positioning around recent trading levels rather than aggressive moves higher or lower in the remaining two weeks. Key near-term influences include ongoing Starlink subscriber growth and any volatility in equity benchmarks or Treasury yields that could affect risk appetite for high-growth aerospace names.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRelated
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