SpaceX's February 2026 all-stock merger with xAI established a combined valuation near $1.25 trillion, shifting the baseline for end-September 2026 market-cap expectations amid preparations for a potential 2026 IPO. Q2 2026 results showed 92% year-over-year revenue growth to $7.8 billion, propelled by Starlink's subscriber doubling and enterprise contracts, while Starship flight tests and AI initiatives like Grok releases added momentum. With implied probabilities tightly clustered between 45% and 47% across bins from under $1 trillion to over $2.25 trillion, trader sentiment reflects uncertainty over IPO pricing multiples, post-merger synergies, and Starlink margin trajectory versus execution risks in the remaining weeks before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$1.25-$1.50T 48%
$1.75-$2.00T 47%
$2.00-$2.25T 46%
<$1.00T 46%
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
<$1.00T
46%
$1.00-$1.25T
46%
$1.25-$1.50T
48%
$1.50-$1.75T
46%
$1.75-$2.00T
47%
$2.00-$2.25T
46%
$2.25T+
46%
$1.25-$1.50T 48%
$1.75-$2.00T 47%
$2.00-$2.25T 46%
<$1.00T 46%
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
<$1.00T
$0 Vol.
46%
$1.00-$1.25T
$0 Vol.
46%
$1.25-$1.50T
$0 Vol.
48%
$1.50-$1.75T
$0 Vol.
46%
$1.75-$2.00T
$0 Vol.
47%
$2.00-$2.25T
$0 Vol.
46%
$2.25T+
$0 Vol.
46%
This market will resolve according to Space Exploration Technologies' public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of the specified month.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.SpaceX's February 2026 all-stock merger with xAI established a combined valuation near $1.25 trillion, shifting the baseline for end-September 2026 market-cap expectations amid preparations for a potential 2026 IPO. Q2 2026 results showed 92% year-over-year revenue growth to $7.8 billion, propelled by Starlink's subscriber doubling and enterprise contracts, while Starship flight tests and AI initiatives like Grok releases added momentum. With implied probabilities tightly clustered between 45% and 47% across bins from under $1 trillion to over $2.25 trillion, trader sentiment reflects uncertainty over IPO pricing multiples, post-merger synergies, and Starlink margin trajectory versus execution risks in the remaining weeks before resolution.
This market will resolve according to Space Exploration Technologies' public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of the specified month.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
Market Opened: Aug 4, 2026, 8:25 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 4, 2026, 8:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Space Exploration Technologies' public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of the specified month.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.SpaceX's February 2026 all-stock merger with xAI established a combined valuation near $1.25 trillion, shifting the baseline for end-September 2026 market-cap expectations amid preparations for a potential 2026 IPO. Q2 2026 results showed 92% year-over-year revenue growth to $7.8 billion, propelled by Starlink's subscriber doubling and enterprise contracts, while Starship flight tests and AI initiatives like Grok releases added momentum. With implied probabilities tightly clustered between 45% and 47% across bins from under $1 trillion to over $2.25 trillion, trader sentiment reflects uncertainty over IPO pricing multiples, post-merger synergies, and Starlink margin trajectory versus execution risks in the remaining weeks before resolution.
This market will resolve according to Space Exploration Technologies' public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of the specified month.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 4, 2026, 8:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...SpaceX's February 2026 all-stock merger with xAI established a combined valuation near $1.25 trillion, shifting the baseline for end-September 2026 market-cap expectations amid preparations for a potential 2026 IPO. Q2 2026 results showed 92% year-over-year revenue growth to $7.8 billion, propelled by Starlink's subscriber doubling and enterprise contracts, while Starship flight tests and AI initiatives like Grok releases added momentum. With implied probabilities tightly clustered between 45% and 47% across bins from under $1 trillion to over $2.25 trillion, trader sentiment reflects uncertainty over IPO pricing multiples, post-merger synergies, and Starlink margin trajectory versus execution risks in the remaining weeks before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRelated
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