The Supreme Court’s June 30, 2026, grant of certiorari in consolidated challenges to assault-weapons restrictions in Cook County and Connecticut has become the dominant driver of trader positioning. With oral arguments slated for fall and a decision likely in 2027, the 6-3 conservative bench’s recent Second Amendment expansions—coupled with Justice Kavanaugh’s prior signal that the AR-15 issue would soon reach the Court—have lifted the implied probability of invalidation just above even. A July 3rd Circuit ruling striking down New Jersey’s similar ban reinforced the momentum by marking the first federal appeals court reversal of such a law. Traders weigh these signals against the Court’s historical deference to state authority on unusually dangerous weapons and the absence of any precedent directly resolving semiautomatic rifle bans under Bruen. Resolution hinges on whether the justices view AR-15s as protected “arms in common use” for self-defense or as outside the Amendment’s scope.