**ADI's strong historical performance and organizational infrastructure position it as the clear frontrunner to finish second in the September 27, 2026, parliamentary election, reflected in the 85.5% market price.** The party secured 30 seats in 2022 under closed-list proportional representation across seven districts, giving it the largest bloc despite recent internal divisions between Patrice Trovoada’s faction and the Américo Ramos group now leading the government. Ramos’s recognition as ADI leader by the Constitutional Court and the party’s split from President Carlos Vila Nova after his January 2025 dismissal have fragmented support, yet ADI retains the broadest voter base. MLSTP–PSD (10%) benefits from its alliance with Vila Nova’s successful July presidential bid but trails in parliamentary strength. Smaller parties and coalitions, including Basta, MCI-PS/PUN, PCD, MDFM, and Nossa Terra, register negligible probabilities due to limited seats and localized support, with the election less than four weeks away offering little time for major shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedADI 85%
MLSTP 9%
MDFM <1%
Nossa Terra <1%
NEW
NEW
Sep 26, 2026
ADI
85%
MLSTP
9%
MDFM
1%
Nossa Terra
<1%
MCI-PS/PUN
<1%
Basta
<1%
PCD
<1%
ADI 85%
MLSTP 9%
MDFM <1%
Nossa Terra <1%
NEW
NEW
Sep 26, 2026
ADI
$3,262 Vol.
85%
MLSTP
$3,375 Vol.
9%
MDFM
$636 Vol.
1%
Nossa Terra
$664 Vol.
<1%
MCI-PS/PUN
$713 Vol.
<1%
Basta
$649 Vol.
<1%
PCD
$642 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the National Assembly of São Tomé and Príncipe are scheduled to take place on September 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the second greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of São Tomé and Príncipe as a result of this election.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
Parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties or coalitions are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties or coalitions remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party or coalition names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the São Toméan government.**ADI's strong historical performance and organizational infrastructure position it as the clear frontrunner to finish second in the September 27, 2026, parliamentary election, reflected in the 85.5% market price.** The party secured 30 seats in 2022 under closed-list proportional representation across seven districts, giving it the largest bloc despite recent internal divisions between Patrice Trovoada’s faction and the Américo Ramos group now leading the government.
Ramos’s recognition as ADI leader by the Constitutional Court and the party’s split from President Carlos Vila Nova after his January 2025 dismissal have fragmented support, yet ADI retains the broadest voter base. MLSTP–PSD (10%) benefits from its alliance with Vila Nova’s successful July presidential bid but trails in parliamentary strength. Smaller parties and coalitions, including Basta, MCI-PS/PUN, PCD, MDFM, and Nossa Terra, register negligible probabilities due to limited seats and localized support, with the election less than four weeks away offering little time for major shifts.
Parliamentary elections to elect the National Assembly of São Tomé and Príncipe are scheduled to take place on September 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the second greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of São Tomé and Príncipe as a result of this election.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
Parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties or coalitions are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties or coalitions remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party or coalition names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the São Toméan government.
This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the second greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of São Tomé and Príncipe as a result of this election.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
Parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties or coalitions are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties or coalitions remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party or coalition names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the São Toméan government.
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 5:45 AM ET
Volume
$9,941End Date
Sep 27, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 5:45 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the National Assembly of São Tomé and Príncipe are scheduled to take place on September 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the second greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of São Tomé and Príncipe as a result of this election.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
Parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties or coalitions are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties or coalitions remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party or coalition names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the São Toméan government.**ADI's strong historical performance and organizational infrastructure position it as the clear frontrunner to finish second in the September 27, 2026, parliamentary election, reflected in the 85.5% market price.** The party secured 30 seats in 2022 under closed-list proportional representation across seven districts, giving it the largest bloc despite recent internal divisions between Patrice Trovoada’s faction and the Américo Ramos group now leading the government.
Ramos’s recognition as ADI leader by the Constitutional Court and the party’s split from President Carlos Vila Nova after his January 2025 dismissal have fragmented support, yet ADI retains the broadest voter base. MLSTP–PSD (10%) benefits from its alliance with Vila Nova’s successful July presidential bid but trails in parliamentary strength. Smaller parties and coalitions, including Basta, MCI-PS/PUN, PCD, MDFM, and Nossa Terra, register negligible probabilities due to limited seats and localized support, with the election less than four weeks away offering little time for major shifts.
Parliamentary elections to elect the National Assembly of São Tomé and Príncipe are scheduled to take place on September 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the second greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of São Tomé and Príncipe as a result of this election.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
Parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties or coalitions are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties or coalitions remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party or coalition names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the São Toméan government.
This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the second greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of São Tomé and Príncipe as a result of this election.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
Parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties or coalitions are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties or coalitions remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party or coalition names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the São Toméan government.
Volume
$9,941End Date
Sep 27, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 5:45 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**ADI's strong historical performance and organizational infrastructure position it as the clear frontrunner to finish second in the September 27, 2026, parliamentary election, reflected in the 85.5% market price.** The party secured 30 seats in 2022 under closed-list proportional representation across seven districts, giving it the largest bloc despite recent internal divisions between Patrice Trovoada’s faction and the Américo Ramos group now leading the government. Ramos’s recognition as ADI leader by the Constitutional Court and the party’s split from President Carlos Vila Nova after his January 2025 dismissal have fragmented support, yet ADI retains the broadest voter base. MLSTP–PSD (10%) benefits from its alliance with Vila Nova’s successful July presidential bid but trails in parliamentary strength. Smaller parties and coalitions, including Basta, MCI-PS/PUN, PCD, MDFM, and Nossa Terra, register negligible probabilities due to limited seats and localized support, with the election less than four weeks away offering little time for major shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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