The Virginia Supreme Court's May 8, 2026, ruling invalidated the April referendum on a constitutional amendment permitting mid-decade redistricting, citing procedural violations of the state constitution's intervening-election requirement. This left the 2021 Special Masters map in place for the November 2026 midterms. Subsequent appeals, including to the U.S. Supreme Court, failed to reinstate the proposed Democratic-leaning map, and primaries on August 4 proceeded under existing district lines. With the election date approaching and no further legislative or judicial pathway remaining viable within the resolution window, traders assign overwhelming probability against any new congressional map taking effect. Late developments such as an unprecedented federal intervention or emergency legislative override could theoretically alter the outcome, though both face steep procedural and timing barriers.