Traders assign a 93.5% probability that Leopold Aschenbrenner faces no criminal charges in 2026 because recent events center on financial losses rather than alleged illegality. His AI-focused hedge fund, Situational Awareness, imploded in late July 2026 after highly leveraged bets on semiconductor and tech stocks triggered margin calls, forcing a fire sale of public holdings to Citadel and shrinking assets from roughly $45 billion to around $10 billion. Coverage from major outlets frames the episode as a classic case of over-leverage and market reversal, with no reports of regulatory probes, fraud accusations, or law-enforcement involvement. Aschenbrenner’s earlier 2024 departure from OpenAI involved disputed internal leaks but produced no charges or ongoing litigation that would signal imminent legal action. Absent fresh evidence of criminal conduct, the market reflects a broad consensus that civil or reputational fallout is far more likely than indictment.