Iran maintains uranium enrichment as a core sovereign right and has repeatedly rejected U.S. or other demands for permanent cessation, extended moratoriums, or facility dismantlement during 2025–2026 nuclear talks. Recent diplomacy centers on the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum that ended prior hostilities, followed by indirect negotiations over sanctions relief, stockpile dilution on Iranian soil, IAEA inspections, and Strait of Hormuz access. Iranian officials, including President Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Araghchi, have reaffirmed enrichment limits as non-negotiable, while U.S. statements from President Trump and Vice President Vance in early August 2026 frame further restraint as conditional on verifiable caps and note degraded Iranian capabilities without imminent full concessions. Ongoing two-phase talks prioritize Hormuz reopening before deeper nuclear issues, with no public pledge or agreement to end all enrichment by year-end. Trader consensus at 85.5% for “No” reflects these entrenched positions and the absence of breakthrough developments that would alter the timeline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated15% chance
$1,574,870 Vol.
$1,574,870 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
15% chance
$1,574,870 Vol.
$1,574,870 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Iran maintains uranium enrichment as a core sovereign right and has repeatedly rejected U.S. or other demands for permanent cessation, extended moratoriums, or facility dismantlement during 2025–2026 nuclear talks. Recent diplomacy centers on the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum that ended prior hostilities, followed by indirect negotiations over sanctions relief, stockpile dilution on Iranian soil, IAEA inspections, and Strait of Hormuz access. Iranian officials, including President Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Araghchi, have reaffirmed enrichment limits as non-negotiable, while U.S. statements from President Trump and Vice President Vance in early August 2026 frame further restraint as conditional on verifiable caps and note degraded Iranian capabilities without imminent full concessions. Ongoing two-phase talks prioritize Hormuz reopening before deeper nuclear issues, with no public pledge or agreement to end all enrichment by year-end. Trader consensus at 85.5% for “No” reflects these entrenched positions and the absence of breakthrough developments that would alter the timeline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ET
Volume
$1,574,870End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Iran maintains uranium enrichment as a core sovereign right and has repeatedly rejected U.S. or other demands for permanent cessation, extended moratoriums, or facility dismantlement during 2025–2026 nuclear talks. Recent diplomacy centers on the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum that ended prior hostilities, followed by indirect negotiations over sanctions relief, stockpile dilution on Iranian soil, IAEA inspections, and Strait of Hormuz access. Iranian officials, including President Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Araghchi, have reaffirmed enrichment limits as non-negotiable, while U.S. statements from President Trump and Vice President Vance in early August 2026 frame further restraint as conditional on verifiable caps and note degraded Iranian capabilities without imminent full concessions. Ongoing two-phase talks prioritize Hormuz reopening before deeper nuclear issues, with no public pledge or agreement to end all enrichment by year-end. Trader consensus at 85.5% for “No” reflects these entrenched positions and the absence of breakthrough developments that would alter the timeline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,574,870End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran maintains uranium enrichment as a core sovereign right and has repeatedly rejected U.S. or other demands for permanent cessation, extended moratoriums, or facility dismantlement during 2025–2026 nuclear talks. Recent diplomacy centers on the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum that ended prior hostilities, followed by indirect negotiations over sanctions relief, stockpile dilution on Iranian soil, IAEA inspections, and Strait of Hormuz access. Iranian officials, including President Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Araghchi, have reaffirmed enrichment limits as non-negotiable, while U.S. statements from President Trump and Vice President Vance in early August 2026 frame further restraint as conditional on verifiable caps and note degraded Iranian capabilities without imminent full concessions. Ongoing two-phase talks prioritize Hormuz reopening before deeper nuclear issues, with no public pledge or agreement to end all enrichment by year-end. Trader consensus at 85.5% for “No” reflects these entrenched positions and the absence of breakthrough developments that would alter the timeline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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