Iran's longstanding insistence on retaining domestic uranium enrichment capacity remains the central barrier, as Tehran has repeatedly designated this a non-negotiable red line in talks with the United States. Following the 2025 termination of the JCPOA and subsequent military strikes on Iranian facilities, draft memoranda reached in June 2026 addressed dilution of highly enriched uranium stockpiles and a commitment against weapons development, yet deferred core enrichment limits to further 60-day negotiations without resolving them. Iranian officials have rejected proposals for long-term moratoria or regional consortium models that would shift enrichment off Iranian soil, while IAEA monitoring gaps and Iran's advanced centrifuge programs continue to complicate verification. With roughly four months until the December 31 deadline and no scheduled breakthrough events altering these dynamics, trader consensus reflects the entrenched diplomatic impasse over Iran's nuclear fuel cycle rights.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated15% chance
$1,574,978 Vol.
$1,574,978 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
15% chance
$1,574,978 Vol.
$1,574,978 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Iran's longstanding insistence on retaining domestic uranium enrichment capacity remains the central barrier, as Tehran has repeatedly designated this a non-negotiable red line in talks with the United States. Following the 2025 termination of the JCPOA and subsequent military strikes on Iranian facilities, draft memoranda reached in June 2026 addressed dilution of highly enriched uranium stockpiles and a commitment against weapons development, yet deferred core enrichment limits to further 60-day negotiations without resolving them. Iranian officials have rejected proposals for long-term moratoria or regional consortium models that would shift enrichment off Iranian soil, while IAEA monitoring gaps and Iran's advanced centrifuge programs continue to complicate verification. With roughly four months until the December 31 deadline and no scheduled breakthrough events altering these dynamics, trader consensus reflects the entrenched diplomatic impasse over Iran's nuclear fuel cycle rights.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ET
Volume
$1,574,978End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Iran's longstanding insistence on retaining domestic uranium enrichment capacity remains the central barrier, as Tehran has repeatedly designated this a non-negotiable red line in talks with the United States. Following the 2025 termination of the JCPOA and subsequent military strikes on Iranian facilities, draft memoranda reached in June 2026 addressed dilution of highly enriched uranium stockpiles and a commitment against weapons development, yet deferred core enrichment limits to further 60-day negotiations without resolving them. Iranian officials have rejected proposals for long-term moratoria or regional consortium models that would shift enrichment off Iranian soil, while IAEA monitoring gaps and Iran's advanced centrifuge programs continue to complicate verification. With roughly four months until the December 31 deadline and no scheduled breakthrough events altering these dynamics, trader consensus reflects the entrenched diplomatic impasse over Iran's nuclear fuel cycle rights.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,574,978End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran's longstanding insistence on retaining domestic uranium enrichment capacity remains the central barrier, as Tehran has repeatedly designated this a non-negotiable red line in talks with the United States. Following the 2025 termination of the JCPOA and subsequent military strikes on Iranian facilities, draft memoranda reached in June 2026 addressed dilution of highly enriched uranium stockpiles and a commitment against weapons development, yet deferred core enrichment limits to further 60-day negotiations without resolving them. Iranian officials have rejected proposals for long-term moratoria or regional consortium models that would shift enrichment off Iranian soil, while IAEA monitoring gaps and Iran's advanced centrifuge programs continue to complicate verification. With roughly four months until the December 31 deadline and no scheduled breakthrough events altering these dynamics, trader consensus reflects the entrenched diplomatic impasse over Iran's nuclear fuel cycle rights.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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