Pakistan’s former prime minister Imran Khan remains incarcerated in Adiala Jail under multiple convictions, including a 14-year corruption term and a subsequent 17-year sentence tied to state gifts, with these penalties extending well beyond the December 2026 cutoff. As of August 2026, he marked three years in detention amid ongoing protests by PTI supporters and international scrutiny over solitary confinement and restricted legal access. Analysts attribute the sustained imprisonment to the military establishment and governing parties’ assessment of Khan as a persistent political rival, which reduces incentives for negotiated release or medical bail despite petitions citing his eye condition. Recent court actions have granted limited anticipatory bail in peripheral cases but upheld core sentences, reinforcing trader consensus reflected in the 91% probability assigned to no release by year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated9% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
9% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan is released from prison by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
For purposes of this market, Imran Khan will be considered to have been released from prison only if he is not physically held in any Pakistani detention facility, including any prison, remand facility, or other place of formal custody, for a continuous period of at least 24 hours. A temporary release for medical treatment, a release on bail that is contingent on return to custody, or a release from one case while remaining in custody under another will not qualify. Release under house arrest, with travel restrictions, or with other non-custodial conditions following release will not prevent this market from resolving to "Yes".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the State of Pakistan or Imran Khan; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Pakistan’s former prime minister Imran Khan remains incarcerated in Adiala Jail under multiple convictions, including a 14-year corruption term and a subsequent 17-year sentence tied to state gifts, with these penalties extending well beyond the December 2026 cutoff. As of August 2026, he marked three years in detention amid ongoing protests by PTI supporters and international scrutiny over solitary confinement and restricted legal access. Analysts attribute the sustained imprisonment to the military establishment and governing parties’ assessment of Khan as a persistent political rival, which reduces incentives for negotiated release or medical bail despite petitions citing his eye condition. Recent court actions have granted limited anticipatory bail in peripheral cases but upheld core sentences, reinforcing trader consensus reflected in the 91% probability assigned to no release by year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan is released from prison by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
For purposes of this market, Imran Khan will be considered to have been released from prison only if he is not physically held in any Pakistani detention facility, including any prison, remand facility, or other place of formal custody, for a continuous period of at least 24 hours. A temporary release for medical treatment, a release on bail that is contingent on return to custody, or a release from one case while remaining in custody under another will not qualify. Release under house arrest, with travel restrictions, or with other non-custodial conditions following release will not prevent this market from resolving to "Yes".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the State of Pakistan or Imran Khan; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For purposes of this market, Imran Khan will be considered to have been released from prison only if he is not physically held in any Pakistani detention facility, including any prison, remand facility, or other place of formal custody, for a continuous period of at least 24 hours. A temporary release for medical treatment, a release on bail that is contingent on return to custody, or a release from one case while remaining in custody under another will not qualify. Release under house arrest, with travel restrictions, or with other non-custodial conditions following release will not prevent this market from resolving to "Yes".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the State of Pakistan or Imran Khan; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 6, 2026, 6:06 PM ET
Volume
$2,161End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 6, 2026, 6:06 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan is released from prison by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
For purposes of this market, Imran Khan will be considered to have been released from prison only if he is not physically held in any Pakistani detention facility, including any prison, remand facility, or other place of formal custody, for a continuous period of at least 24 hours. A temporary release for medical treatment, a release on bail that is contingent on return to custody, or a release from one case while remaining in custody under another will not qualify. Release under house arrest, with travel restrictions, or with other non-custodial conditions following release will not prevent this market from resolving to "Yes".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the State of Pakistan or Imran Khan; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Pakistan’s former prime minister Imran Khan remains incarcerated in Adiala Jail under multiple convictions, including a 14-year corruption term and a subsequent 17-year sentence tied to state gifts, with these penalties extending well beyond the December 2026 cutoff. As of August 2026, he marked three years in detention amid ongoing protests by PTI supporters and international scrutiny over solitary confinement and restricted legal access. Analysts attribute the sustained imprisonment to the military establishment and governing parties’ assessment of Khan as a persistent political rival, which reduces incentives for negotiated release or medical bail despite petitions citing his eye condition. Recent court actions have granted limited anticipatory bail in peripheral cases but upheld core sentences, reinforcing trader consensus reflected in the 91% probability assigned to no release by year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan is released from prison by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
For purposes of this market, Imran Khan will be considered to have been released from prison only if he is not physically held in any Pakistani detention facility, including any prison, remand facility, or other place of formal custody, for a continuous period of at least 24 hours. A temporary release for medical treatment, a release on bail that is contingent on return to custody, or a release from one case while remaining in custody under another will not qualify. Release under house arrest, with travel restrictions, or with other non-custodial conditions following release will not prevent this market from resolving to "Yes".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the State of Pakistan or Imran Khan; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For purposes of this market, Imran Khan will be considered to have been released from prison only if he is not physically held in any Pakistani detention facility, including any prison, remand facility, or other place of formal custody, for a continuous period of at least 24 hours. A temporary release for medical treatment, a release on bail that is contingent on return to custody, or a release from one case while remaining in custody under another will not qualify. Release under house arrest, with travel restrictions, or with other non-custodial conditions following release will not prevent this market from resolving to "Yes".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the State of Pakistan or Imran Khan; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$2,161End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 6, 2026, 6:06 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Pakistan’s former prime minister Imran Khan remains incarcerated in Adiala Jail under multiple convictions, including a 14-year corruption term and a subsequent 17-year sentence tied to state gifts, with these penalties extending well beyond the December 2026 cutoff. As of August 2026, he marked three years in detention amid ongoing protests by PTI supporters and international scrutiny over solitary confinement and restricted legal access. Analysts attribute the sustained imprisonment to the military establishment and governing parties’ assessment of Khan as a persistent political rival, which reduces incentives for negotiated release or medical bail despite petitions citing his eye condition. Recent court actions have granted limited anticipatory bail in peripheral cases but upheld core sentences, reinforcing trader consensus reflected in the 91% probability assigned to no release by year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions