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icon for Will MSCI downgrade Indonesia to Frontier Market status by November 30?
Finance·Indonesia

Will MSCI downgrade Indonesia to Frontier Market status by November 30?

icon for Will MSCI downgrade Indonesia to Frontier Market status by November 30?
Finance·Indonesia

Will MSCI downgrade Indonesia to Frontier Market status by November 30?

19% chance
Polymarket
NEW
19% chance
Polymarket
NEW
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) reclassifies Indonesia as a Frontier Market at any point by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.” An official MSCI announcement of reclassification will be sufficient for a ‘Yes’ resolution, even if such reclassification does not go into effect by the date listed above. Announcements that MSCI is considering or exploring reclassification will not be sufficient to resolve the market. The resolution source will be official MSCI communication or a consensus of credible reporting.MSCI’s June 2026 market classification review deferred any immediate downgrade of Indonesia from emerging- to frontier-market status, explicitly crediting recent reforms by OJK, IDX, and KSEI on shareholder disclosures above 1 percent, a high-shareholding-concentration framework, and a roadmap to lift minimum free float to 15 percent. These measures directly address prior concerns over market opacity and coordinated trading that had triggered the review, supporting the 73.5 percent market-implied probability against reclassification by November 30. The next key catalyst remains the November 2026 index review, where MSCI will assess whether credible implementation progress has occurred before considering consultation on frontier status. Traders view the extended timeline and reform momentum as tilting the near-term odds against a downgrade.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) reclassifies Indonesia as a Frontier Market at any point by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”

An official MSCI announcement of reclassification will be sufficient for a ‘Yes’ resolution, even if such reclassification does not go into effect by the date listed above. Announcements that MSCI is considering or exploring reclassification will not be sufficient to resolve the market.

The resolution source will be official MSCI communication or a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$251
End Date
Nov 30, 2026
Market Opened
Jun 26, 2026, 11:28 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) reclassifies Indonesia as a Frontier Market at any point by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.” An official MSCI announcement of reclassification will be sufficient for a ‘Yes’ resolution, even if such reclassification does not go into effect by the date listed above. Announcements that MSCI is considering or exploring reclassification will not be sufficient to resolve the market. The resolution source will be official MSCI communication or a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) reclassifies Indonesia as a Frontier Market at any point by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.” An official MSCI announcement of reclassification will be sufficient for a ‘Yes’ resolution, even if such reclassification does not go into effect by the date listed above. Announcements that MSCI is considering or exploring reclassification will not be sufficient to resolve the market. The resolution source will be official MSCI communication or a consensus of credible reporting.MSCI’s June 2026 market classification review deferred any immediate downgrade of Indonesia from emerging- to frontier-market status, explicitly crediting recent reforms by OJK, IDX, and KSEI on shareholder disclosures above 1 percent, a high-shareholding-concentration framework, and a roadmap to lift minimum free float to 15 percent. These measures directly address prior concerns over market opacity and coordinated trading that had triggered the review, supporting the 73.5 percent market-implied probability against reclassification by November 30. The next key catalyst remains the November 2026 index review, where MSCI will assess whether credible implementation progress has occurred before considering consultation on frontier status. Traders view the extended timeline and reform momentum as tilting the near-term odds against a downgrade.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) reclassifies Indonesia as a Frontier Market at any point by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”

An official MSCI announcement of reclassification will be sufficient for a ‘Yes’ resolution, even if such reclassification does not go into effect by the date listed above. Announcements that MSCI is considering or exploring reclassification will not be sufficient to resolve the market.

The resolution source will be official MSCI communication or a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$251
End Date
Nov 30, 2026
Market Opened
Jun 26, 2026, 11:28 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) reclassifies Indonesia as a Frontier Market at any point by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.” An official MSCI announcement of reclassification will be sufficient for a ‘Yes’ resolution, even if such reclassification does not go into effect by the date listed above. Announcements that MSCI is considering or exploring reclassification will not be sufficient to resolve the market. The resolution source will be official MSCI communication or a consensus of credible reporting.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will MSCI downgrade Indonesia to Frontier Market status by November 30?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 19% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 19¢, the market collectively assigns a 19% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Will MSCI downgrade Indonesia to Frontier Market status by November 30?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jun 26, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Will MSCI downgrade Indonesia to Frontier Market status by November 30?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will MSCI downgrade Indonesia to Frontier Market status by November 30?" is 19% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 19% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will MSCI downgrade Indonesia to Frontier Market status by November 30?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.