No magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquakes have been recorded globally through September 23 in the September 21–27 window, following a September 20 M6.4 event in Papua New Guinea that fell just outside the period. USGS and EMSC catalogs show only moderate background seismicity, with the largest events limited to M5.0–5.5 quakes in Indonesia, Japan, the Philippines, and Chile—none approaching the resolution threshold on the moment magnitude scale. No foreshock swarms, significant aftershock sequences, or alerts from monitoring agencies indicate elevated risk in active zones such as the Pacific Ring of Fire. This recent quiet period underpins the market’s 54.5% implied probability for zero events, though the remaining four days carry normal uncertainty given the irregular clustering of larger quakes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 21 - September 27?
0 55%
1 33%
2 13%
5 1.9%

0
55%

1
33%

2
13%

3
2%

4
1%

5
2%

more than 5
2%
0 55%
1 33%
2 13%
5 1.9%

0
55%

1
33%

2
13%

3
2%

4
1%

5
2%

more than 5
2%
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Market Opened: Sep 21, 2026, 9:38 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Resolution Source
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...No magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquakes have been recorded globally through September 23 in the September 21–27 window, following a September 20 M6.4 event in Papua New Guinea that fell just outside the period. USGS and EMSC catalogs show only moderate background seismicity, with the largest events limited to M5.0–5.5 quakes in Indonesia, Japan, the Philippines, and Chile—none approaching the resolution threshold on the moment magnitude scale. No foreshock swarms, significant aftershock sequences, or alerts from monitoring agencies indicate elevated risk in active zones such as the Pacific Ring of Fire. This recent quiet period underpins the market’s 54.5% implied probability for zero events, though the remaining four days carry normal uncertainty given the irregular clustering of larger quakes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions