Recent polling for the 2026 midterms shows Democratic candidates holding a wide lead among Black registered voters, typically 68% to single-digit or low-teen Republican support, consistent with historical patterns but reflecting modest 2024 erosion. Economic pressures, including higher Black unemployment and affordability concerns, alongside administration actions on DEI and voting rights litigation, have tempered earlier post-2024 gains while boosting turnout motivation in affected districts. The market's even pricing across bins signals trader uncertainty over whether structural Democratic advantages or targeted GOP outreach on economic and cultural issues will determine the final share. Upcoming generic ballot surveys, primary results, and late-cycle messaging on trust and policy delivery could shift probabilities toward clearer separation in one direction or the other.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated<8% 44%
8–9% 44%
12–13% 44%
14–15% 44%
NEW
NEW
Nov 6, 2026
<8%
44%
8–9%
44%
12–13%
44%
14–15%
44%
18%+
44%
16–17%
44%
10–11%
43%
<8% 44%
8–9% 44%
12–13% 44%
14–15% 44%
NEW
NEW
Nov 6, 2026
<8%
$0 Vol.
44%
8–9%
$0 Vol.
44%
12–13%
$0 Vol.
44%
14–15%
$0 Vol.
44%
18%+
$0 Vol.
44%
16–17%
$0 Vol.
44%
10–11%
$0 Vol.
43%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the Black vote won by Republicans in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.
This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026.
For purposes of this market, the terms "Black" and "African-American" will be considered synonymous.
In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below.
In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC.
In the event that the resolution source reports numbers that are contain one or more decimal point, this market will resolve based on the result of rounding such a number to the nearest whole number.
If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. Recent polling for the 2026 midterms shows Democratic candidates holding a wide lead among Black registered voters, typically 68% to single-digit or low-teen Republican support, consistent with historical patterns but reflecting modest 2024 erosion. Economic pressures, including higher Black unemployment and affordability concerns, alongside administration actions on DEI and voting rights litigation, have tempered earlier post-2024 gains while boosting turnout motivation in affected districts. The market's even pricing across bins signals trader uncertainty over whether structural Democratic advantages or targeted GOP outreach on economic and cultural issues will determine the final share. Upcoming generic ballot surveys, primary results, and late-cycle messaging on trust and policy delivery could shift probabilities toward clearer separation in one direction or the other.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the Black vote won by Republicans in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.
This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026.
For purposes of this market, the terms "Black" and "African-American" will be considered synonymous.
In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below.
In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC.
In the event that the resolution source reports numbers that are contain one or more decimal point, this market will resolve based on the result of rounding such a number to the nearest whole number.
If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the Black vote won by Republicans in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.
This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026.
For purposes of this market, the terms "Black" and "African-American" will be considered synonymous.
In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below.
In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC.
In the event that the resolution source reports numbers that are contain one or more decimal point, this market will resolve based on the result of rounding such a number to the nearest whole number.
If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 2:11 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Nov 7, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 2:11 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the Black vote won by Republicans in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.
This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026.
For purposes of this market, the terms "Black" and "African-American" will be considered synonymous.
In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below.
In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC.
In the event that the resolution source reports numbers that are contain one or more decimal point, this market will resolve based on the result of rounding such a number to the nearest whole number.
If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. Recent polling for the 2026 midterms shows Democratic candidates holding a wide lead among Black registered voters, typically 68% to single-digit or low-teen Republican support, consistent with historical patterns but reflecting modest 2024 erosion. Economic pressures, including higher Black unemployment and affordability concerns, alongside administration actions on DEI and voting rights litigation, have tempered earlier post-2024 gains while boosting turnout motivation in affected districts. The market's even pricing across bins signals trader uncertainty over whether structural Democratic advantages or targeted GOP outreach on economic and cultural issues will determine the final share. Upcoming generic ballot surveys, primary results, and late-cycle messaging on trust and policy delivery could shift probabilities toward clearer separation in one direction or the other.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the Black vote won by Republicans in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.
This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026.
For purposes of this market, the terms "Black" and "African-American" will be considered synonymous.
In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below.
In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC.
In the event that the resolution source reports numbers that are contain one or more decimal point, this market will resolve based on the result of rounding such a number to the nearest whole number.
If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the Black vote won by Republicans in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.
This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026.
For purposes of this market, the terms "Black" and "African-American" will be considered synonymous.
In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below.
In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC.
In the event that the resolution source reports numbers that are contain one or more decimal point, this market will resolve based on the result of rounding such a number to the nearest whole number.
If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Volume
$0End Date
Nov 7, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 2:11 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling for the 2026 midterms shows Democratic candidates holding a wide lead among Black registered voters, typically 68% to single-digit or low-teen Republican support, consistent with historical patterns but reflecting modest 2024 erosion. Economic pressures, including higher Black unemployment and affordability concerns, alongside administration actions on DEI and voting rights litigation, have tempered earlier post-2024 gains while boosting turnout motivation in affected districts. The market's even pricing across bins signals trader uncertainty over whether structural Democratic advantages or targeted GOP outreach on economic and cultural issues will determine the final share. Upcoming generic ballot surveys, primary results, and late-cycle messaging on trust and policy delivery could shift probabilities toward clearer separation in one direction or the other.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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