Costco’s strong fiscal 2026 sales momentum underpins the 77% market-implied probability of a Q4 earnings beat on September 24. Net sales rose 9.9% year-over-year to $23.7 billion in August and 10.2% for the full year to $297.3 billion, with comparable sales up 8.4% and digitally enabled sales advancing nearly 18%. Membership fee income and executive cardholder growth have sustained margin stability, while prior quarters delivered consistent EPS beats—most recently $4.93 versus $4.92 estimates in Q3. Analyst consensus projects $6.53 EPS for Q4 against last year’s $5.87, with recent broker upgrades reflecting confidence in traffic and ticket trends. The release remains the key near-term catalyst for resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated78% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 24, 2026
78% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 24, 2026
As of market creation, Costco is estimated to release earnings on September 24, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Costco's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $6.69 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Costco reports GAAP EPS greater than $6.69 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents.
If Costco releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.
If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets reflect the selected street consensus estimate for GAAP EPS as of market creation.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
Costco’s strong fiscal 2026 sales momentum underpins the 77% market-implied probability of a Q4 earnings beat on September 24. Net sales rose 9.9% year-over-year to $23.7 billion in August and 10.2% for the full year to $297.3 billion, with comparable sales up 8.4% and digitally enabled sales advancing nearly 18%. Membership fee income and executive cardholder growth have sustained margin stability, while prior quarters delivered consistent EPS beats—most recently $4.93 versus $4.92 estimates in Q3. Analyst consensus projects $6.53 EPS for Q4 against last year’s $5.87, with recent broker upgrades reflecting confidence in traffic and ticket trends. The release remains the key near-term catalyst for resolution.
As of market creation, Costco is estimated to release earnings on September 24, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Costco's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $6.69 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Costco reports GAAP EPS greater than $6.69 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents.
If Costco releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.
If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets reflect the selected street consensus estimate for GAAP EPS as of market creation.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
If Costco releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.
If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets reflect the selected street consensus estimate for GAAP EPS as of market creation.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
Market Opened: Sep 10, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$1,583End Date
Sep 24, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolution Source
https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/COST/earningsResolver
0x65070BE91...As of market creation, Costco is estimated to release earnings on September 24, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Costco's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $6.69 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Costco reports GAAP EPS greater than $6.69 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents.
If Costco releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.
If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets reflect the selected street consensus estimate for GAAP EPS as of market creation.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
Costco’s strong fiscal 2026 sales momentum underpins the 77% market-implied probability of a Q4 earnings beat on September 24. Net sales rose 9.9% year-over-year to $23.7 billion in August and 10.2% for the full year to $297.3 billion, with comparable sales up 8.4% and digitally enabled sales advancing nearly 18%. Membership fee income and executive cardholder growth have sustained margin stability, while prior quarters delivered consistent EPS beats—most recently $4.93 versus $4.92 estimates in Q3. Analyst consensus projects $6.53 EPS for Q4 against last year’s $5.87, with recent broker upgrades reflecting confidence in traffic and ticket trends. The release remains the key near-term catalyst for resolution.
As of market creation, Costco is estimated to release earnings on September 24, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Costco's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $6.69 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Costco reports GAAP EPS greater than $6.69 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents.
If Costco releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.
If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets reflect the selected street consensus estimate for GAAP EPS as of market creation.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
If Costco releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.
If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets reflect the selected street consensus estimate for GAAP EPS as of market creation.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
Volume
$1,583End Date
Sep 24, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolution Source
https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/COST/earningsResolver
0x65070BE91...Costco’s strong fiscal 2026 sales momentum underpins the 77% market-implied probability of a Q4 earnings beat on September 24. Net sales rose 9.9% year-over-year to $23.7 billion in August and 10.2% for the full year to $297.3 billion, with comparable sales up 8.4% and digitally enabled sales advancing nearly 18%. Membership fee income and executive cardholder growth have sustained margin stability, while prior quarters delivered consistent EPS beats—most recently $4.93 versus $4.92 estimates in Q3. Analyst consensus projects $6.53 EPS for Q4 against last year’s $5.87, with recent broker upgrades reflecting confidence in traffic and ticket trends. The release remains the key near-term catalyst for resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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