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Politics·House Of Representatives

CA-14 Special Election Winner?

icon for CA-14 Special Election Winner?
Politics·House Of Representatives

CA-14 Special Election Winner?

Aisha Wahab 85%

Melissa Hernandez 13.8%

Wendy Huang <1%

Carin Elam <1%

Polymarket

$24,938 Vol.

Aisha Wahab 85%

Melissa Hernandez 13.8%

Wendy Huang <1%

Carin Elam <1%

Polymarket

$24,938 Vol.

Aisha Wahab

$16,645 Vol.

85%

Melissa Hernandez

$2,471 Vol.

14%

Wendy Huang

$1,320 Vol.

1%

Carin Elam

$826 Vol.

1%

Matt Ortega

$1,034 Vol.

<1%

Rakhi Israni Singh

$1,711 Vol.

<1%

Victor Aguilar Jr.

$930 Vol.

<1%

A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. This market will resolve according to the winner of this election. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.Aisha Wahab holds an 85% implied probability in the CA-14 special election market primarily due to her commanding 42.8% share in the June 16, 2026 top-two primary, more than double the 16.8% received by Melissa Hernandez, which advanced the two Democrats to the August 18 runoff. The California Democratic Party's endorsement of Wahab, her profile as a sitting state senator, and the district's consistent Democratic voting patterns in the Bay Area further reinforce trader consensus on her advantage. Hernandez remains the only viable alternative at 13.6%, though trailing significantly without comparable institutional support or primary momentum. Minor candidates trail at under 1% each, reflecting limited viability in this safely Democratic seat. The upcoming runoff serves as the final resolution trigger.

A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives.

This market will resolve according to the winner of this election.

This market includes any potential runoff election or second round.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Volume
$24,938
End Date
Aug 18, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 1:41 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. This market will resolve according to the winner of this election. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. This market will resolve according to the winner of this election. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.Aisha Wahab holds an 85% implied probability in the CA-14 special election market primarily due to her commanding 42.8% share in the June 16, 2026 top-two primary, more than double the 16.8% received by Melissa Hernandez, which advanced the two Democrats to the August 18 runoff. The California Democratic Party's endorsement of Wahab, her profile as a sitting state senator, and the district's consistent Democratic voting patterns in the Bay Area further reinforce trader consensus on her advantage. Hernandez remains the only viable alternative at 13.6%, though trailing significantly without comparable institutional support or primary momentum. Minor candidates trail at under 1% each, reflecting limited viability in this safely Democratic seat. The upcoming runoff serves as the final resolution trigger.

A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives.

This market will resolve according to the winner of this election.

This market includes any potential runoff election or second round.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Volume
$24,938
End Date
Aug 18, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 1:41 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. This market will resolve according to the winner of this election. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.

Related

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Frequently Asked Questions

"CA-14 Special Election Winner?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Aisha Wahab" at 85%, followed by "Melissa Hernandez" at 14%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 85¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 85% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "CA-14 Special Election Winner?" has generated $24.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 16, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "CA-14 Special Election Winner?," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "CA-14 Special Election Winner?" is "Aisha Wahab" at 85%, meaning the market assigns a 85% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Melissa Hernandez" at 14%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "CA-14 Special Election Winner?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.